764
FXUS63 KSGF 250512
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1212 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOST OF SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY, WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- MAIN SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SEVERE
STORMS. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY OF THE SEQUENCE WITH THE
HIGHEST SEVERE RISK.
- LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH TRAINING STORMS THIS WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MUCAPE FOR
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGHS
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT UNCAPPED MUCAPE OF 1000 TO
1500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST, SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS AREA OF UNCAPPED MUCAPE. THERE COULD BE A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, BUT MOST STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, THE CAP WILL INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT, AND SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
FURTHER TO WEST. THE SCATTERED STORMS COULD MOVE EAST INTO THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY EVENING, THEN WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE SO
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN RISK. IF THE CAP DOES HOLD FURTHER
EAST, THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST. THE STORMS
COULD DEVELOP INTO A LINE AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. IF A LINE CAN DEVELOP, DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF BOWING SEGMENTS CAN DEVELOP INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
STORMS AND THE BETTER INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA,
THAT STORMS DO NOT DEVELOP INTO LINE OVER OR NORTH OF THE AREA.
IF THIS OCCURS, STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND LIKELY END
BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, AND A DRY LINE
MAY MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS ON SUNDAY. THE BETTER FORCING WILL
REMAIN FURTHER WEST CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA, AND MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE MU CIN WILL WEAKEN. THE SURFACE CAP
LOOKS TO REMAIN STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT MAY WEAKEN
ENOUGH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI TO ALLOW STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE DRY LINE MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
EAST INTO THE AREA. WITH THE BETTER FORCING FURTHER WEST OF US,
COVERAGE MAY REMAIN MORE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA.
IF THE SURFACE CAP REMAINS STRONG BUT STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE MUCAPE AND BE ELEVATED IN NATURE, LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN RISK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF ENOUGH
STORMS CAN DEVELOP, IT IS POSSIBLE A LINE OF STORMS CAN
DEVELOP, BUT WITH THE LIMITED FORCING THIS SEEMS LESS LIKELY. IF
THE SURFACE CAP DOES WEAKEN, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL JET SUNDAY EVENING, SO ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING (LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES).
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
MOVE EAST. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE EXACT TIME OF THE
FRONT, SOME BRING THE FRONT IN FASTER BY MIDDAY WHEREAS OTHERS
BRING IT IN THE EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA ALONG WITH THE THE SHEAR INCREASING. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
WILL BE STRONG. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME ELEVATED STORMS
DEVELOP IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN ROUND OF
STORMS, AND A FEW OF THESE MORNING STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. WITH THE SLOWER
MODELS, THE STORMS WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP FURTHER WEST, AS FAR
WEST AS OUR WESTERN CWA. HOWEVER, THE FASTER MODELS INDICATE
STORMS WOULD FORM FARTHER EAST, TOWARDS THE EASTERN OZARKS. THE
STORMS WOULD THEN TRACK EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER,
WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ROUND.
OVERALL, THE WIDESPREAD FLOODING RISK IS LOW ACROSS THE AREA,
BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK WILL
BE POSSIBLE WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATION.
DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND
MONDAY'S SYSTEM. THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS THEN SHOW THAT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT
MODEL DIFFER ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE EVENT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
FOR THE 06Z TAFS, SOME STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA INCLUDING SGF WHILE LIGHT FOG WAS BEGINNING AT BBG. FOR
NOW AM GOING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BOTH PLACES, BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR BBG FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOWER VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT
WITH A NEARLY CALM WIND AND ZERO DEWPOINT DEPRESSION. NOT A
STRONG ENOUGH SIGNAL TO PUT IN CONVECTION YET FOR TODAY/TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE, HOWEVER IF IT GETS ADDED IN
LATER FORECASTS THE BEST BET WOULD BE NEAR JLN AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SGF.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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