378
FXUS63 KSGF 260540
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1240 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING, AND COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
MAINLY WEST OF SPRINGFIELD. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS.
- LOW CONFIDENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS ARE POSSIBLE IT STORMS DEVELOP. HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MONDAY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 65 WITH AN ENHANCED RISK EAST OF HIGHWAY 63. ALL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THIS ROUND.
- LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH TRAINING STORMS THIS WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 0.25IN AND 0.75IN WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 1.00IN.
MESOSCALE
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS IN
PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS WHERE THE
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY. OVERALL THE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA, BUT THE
FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVE INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE THERE IS A RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING, AND COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A PITTSBURG KANSAS TO
GREENFIELD TO SHELL KNOB MISSOURI LINE. THERE IS A RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS. THERE COULD BE A
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND RISK WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS.
LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, LIMITING THE TORNADO RISK ACROSS OUR
AREA. FARTHER EAST, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS TONIGHT, BUT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER EAST OF
THESE LINES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA OUT
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO KANSAS. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL
PIECES OF ENERGY EXIST ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THE 12Z KSGF
SOUNDING SHOWED CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ALOFT HOWEVER SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS TRYING TO ADVECT IN UNDER SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION, GENERALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS SET UP A
STRONG SURFACE INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS OKLAHOMA WITH SOME
INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA (SB CAPE AROUND
2000J/KG).PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES (ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE) HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING - TONIGHT: THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT NORTH INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. INCREASING LIFT
FROM THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND A 850MB JET WILL LIKELY FORCE
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA IN OKLAHOMA.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO TRY TO FORM IN CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG A
SECONDARY FRONT. THAT LEAVES AN UNCERTAIN STORM COVERAGE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI WHICH WILL BE
FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE FORCING. 12Z HREF DATA ONLY SHOWS A
FEW CAMS WITH STORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BEFORE 7PM
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE AFTER 9PM, LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT LOW LEVEL JET. IF STORMS CAN BECOME ORGANIZED TO THE WEST
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA, THEY WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED. 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40-50KTS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL
PRODUCTION. FORECAST LARGE HAIL PARAMETERS BETWEEN 6 AND 8
WOULD SUGGEST GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL OR SLIGHTLY LARGER COULD OCCUR
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS WOULD BE ALONG AND
WEST OF A PITTSBURG, KANSAS TO JOPLIN TO PINEVILLE LINE.
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF SUBSTANTIALLY WITH EASTERN EXTENT
THEREFORE THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL THAT STORMS WILL DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. MANY
LOCATIONS COULD REMAIN DRY FROM HIGHWAY 65 AND POINT EAST
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY - SUNDAY NIGHT: THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE (20-40%) OF REMNANT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, LIKELY
WITH ANY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCE. OTHERWISE ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE WARM FRONT AS IT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT INTO THE
AREA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER COULD INHIBIT
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT HOWEVER ML CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND
SUFFICIENT SHEAR WOULD ALLOW FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
IF STORMS CAN BREAK THE CAP WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT FARTHER
NORTH FROM NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI, CLOSER TO THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT
TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS ACTIVITY CAN MAKE IT. SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE AREA DRY (STORMS ALL NORTH OF THE AREA), HOWEVER OTHER CAMS
DO CLIP AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54 WITH STORMS. WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY WITH ADDITIONAL UPDATES.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MONDAY: STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY, WITH THE STRONGEST
FORCING GENERALLY NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS MAY PLAY A ROLE IN OUR
SEVERE STORM COVERAGE AS A FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. DEPENDING ON ANY MORNING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE, DESTABILIZATION TO SOME DEGREE WILL LIKELY OCCUR.
LATEST RAP GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A CORRIDOR OF
2000-3000J/KG OF ML CAPE WITH 50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. SURFACE
TEMPS HAVE THE POTENTIALLY TO REACH THE LOWER 80S. SURFACE
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY TRY TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
WHICH WOULD REDUCE HELICITIES SLIGHTLY. LARGE HAIL (POTENTIALLY
GREATER THAN 2 INCH) AND DAMAGING WINDS SEEM TO THE MOST LIKELY
HAZARDS HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT AS WELL GIVEN THE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 63 WILL BE IN THE
ZONE FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AND WE WILL NEED
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE FRONTAL TIMING. ALSO, IF THE STRONGER
ENERGY/LIFT REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA, THEN THIS COULD REDUCE
THE NUMBER OF STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA.
PATTERN CHANGE TUESDAY - FRIDAY: THE FRONT MAY TRY TO LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WITH
INCOMING SHORTWAVE ENERGY, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THAT FRONTAL
PLACEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES SOUTH OF SPRINGFIELD. A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THEN DEVELOPS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND
A CUT OFF LOW SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
CHANCES IN THIS PATTERN IS LOW, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO OR PERHAPS BELOW AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
A TRICKY TAF FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE 06Z PERIOD. WHILE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT 10-15 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 KTS AT TIMES, LOW-END CHANCES OF STORMS (15-40%)
WILL EXIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AFTER 10Z. THE TWO MAIN PERIODS
LOOK TO BE EARLY MORNING (BETWEEN 10-18Z) AS A BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE TAF SITES, THEN AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD (21-05Z) AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM KANSAS. HAVE
INCLUDED PROB30 FOR THESE TIMES, THOUGH EVEN WITH THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN THESE INTERVALS, MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT
TIMING, LEADING TO A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS DURING THE WHOLE
PERIOD. ANY HEALTHY STORM THAT DOES IMPACT THE TAF SITE WILL
HARBOR THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS TO LIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS, ESPECIALLY IF THEY
OCCUR DURING THE LATTER TIMEFRAME (21-05Z).
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MESOSCALE...WISE
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...PRICE
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