885
FXUS63 KSGF 260837
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
337 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR QUARTER
TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL. ANY LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL UP TO LIME SIZE AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH DEPENDING ON STORM EVOLUTION.
- HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65, WITH A GREATER
ENHANCED (3 OF 5) RISK EAST OF HIGHWAY 63. LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
- LINGERING MARGINAL (1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL IS
THE MAIN HAZARD.
- LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH ANY TRAINING STORMS THIS
WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY. SOME LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN COMPLETELY
DRY.
- MOSTLY DRY WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
AND ONWARD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
CURRENT SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CONUS IS RATHER CHAOTIC
WITH SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES SCATTERED ACROSS THE LANDMASS.
AROUND THE PLAINS AREA, WESTERLY MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BREAK
DOWN TO A 700 MB SHORTWAVE AXIS STRETCHING ACROSS KS AND INTO
WESTERN MO. ALONG THIS AXIS, 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND WARM-
AIR ADVECTION IS NOTED IN RAP ANALYSIS. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF
A WARM FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED ALONG THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, THOUGH THE PLANE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO CENTRAL KS/WESTERN MO WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED 700 MB FRONT IS LOCATED. THESE FEATURES WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTH.
LOW CONFIDENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK TODAY AND TONIGHT:
HREF/RAP MODELS LIFT THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
WHILE MANY CAMS FAIL TO DEPICT CONVECTION, ANALYSIS OF SOUNDINGS
SHOW UNCAPPED 500-1000 J/KG ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH. WITH WAA AND FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING WITHIN THE
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DO SHOW POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 6-8
AM, WITH A 25-40% CHANCE WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 THROUGH AT LEAST 1
PM AS THE FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
EXACT TIMING AS DIFFERENT MODELS ACTIVATE DIFFERENT LEVELS OF
THE WARM FRONT. FOR EXAMPLE, IF THE 700 MB FRONT ACTIVATES, WE
COULD SEE STORMS AS EARLY AS 6-8 AM (RAP). IF THE 850 MB FRONT
ACTIVATES, WE COULD SEE STORMS A BIT CLOSER TO MID-DAY
(NAMNEST). IF THE SURFACE FRONT ACTIVATES, WE COULD SEE STORMS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON (HRRR). THEREFORE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 (25-40% CHANCE).
WHILE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS ALL DAY, THE INTENSITY OF POTENTIAL
HAZARDS IS IN FLUX. DURING THE MORNING HOURS, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
AND MUCAPE WILL BE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE AT 25-35 KTS 1-6 KM BULK
SHEAR, AND 500-1500 J/KG MUCAPE. THEREFORE, ANY STRONGER STORMS
IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WOULD CARRY A HAIL RISK OF UP
TO QUARTERS TO HALF DOLLARS. AS THE DAY GOES ON, MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB, INCREASING DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR TO 35-45 KTS AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 1750-3000 J/KG.
ADDITIONALLY, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AT 7-8 C/KM. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS TO BECOME
SUPERCELLS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH A
LARGE HAIL RISK UP TO GOLF BALLS TO LIME SIZE. RAP FORECASTS PUT
A LARGE HAIL PARAMETER OF 8-12 THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH RESEARCH
SHOWS LINES UP WITH MAXIMUM HAIL SIZES OF LIMES TO TENNIS BALLS.
LOCATION OF THESE STORMS WILL LARGELY REMAIN CONFINED TO WEST OF
HIGHWAY 65, WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE TOWARD WEST-CENTRAL
MISSOURI WHERE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND SYNOPTIC ASCENT
IS GREATER (THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE ENHANCED SPC RISK IS).
MEANWHILE, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL KS AND
NORTHERN OK. THESE ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD, POTENTIALLY
REACHING OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CAMS HAVE ALSO STRUGGLED TO SIMULATE WHAT THESE STORMS WILL DO,
BUT WITH THE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTENTLY STAYING AT 2000-3000 J/KG
MUCAPE AND 40-50 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, PATTERN RECOGNITION
SUGGESTS THESE STORMS WOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AS THEY
MOVE EASTWARD, REACHING OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 06Z HRRR
IS STARTING TO CONFORM TO THIS SCENARIO AFTER MULTIPLE RUNS OF
KEEPING US DRY. THEREFORE, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LAST WELL
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IF THE MCS SCENARIO PANS OUT, DAMAGING WINDS
UP TO 60-70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF STORMS STAY RATHER
DISCRETE, LARGE HAIL UP TO LIMES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARD. THAT SAID, A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT
THEY ARE THE SECONDARY HAZARDS. ONCE AGAIN, IT IS UNCLEAR HOW
FAR SOUTH THE GREATER COVERAGE IN STORMS GET AS THE STRONGER
FORCING REMAINS NORTH. NORTH OF I-44 SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT (60-70% CHANCE).
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON:
CONSIDERING THE MCS SCENARIO ABOVE, REMNANT SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING, BUT SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OUT. AT
THIS POINT, THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA, PUTTING
US IN AN OPEN WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY MID TO UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS WITH RESULTING HREF MEAN SBCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3000
J/KG (WITH SOME OUTPUT SHOWING 4000+ J/KG). A DRYLINE WILL BE
PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA MID-DAY. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML) WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AT 8-9 C/KM. WHILE THIS WILL INITIALLY PROVIDE SOME
CAPPING (WE MAY SEE A "LOADED GUN" TYPE SOUNDING AT 18Z), HREF
AND RAP MODELS ERODE THIS CAPPING BY EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM
THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE/JET MAX. THIS SPEED MAX WILL
INCREASE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO 50-60 KTS. THESE PARAMETERS CREATE
QUITE THE JUICED UP ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS IN TIMING OF STORM INITIATION, WHICH
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIME OF CAP EROSION. THE SPC RISK MAP
HIGHLIGHTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MARGINAL EXTENDING WEST TO
I-49, THE SLIGHT ALONG HIGHWAY 65, AND THE ENHANCED ALONG
HIGHWAY 63. AN EARLY EROSION OF THE CAP WOULD PUT INITIATION
ALONG I-49. A LATER EROSION WOULD PUT INITIATION CLOSER TO
HIGHWAY 63.
EITHER WAY, EXPECTATION IS FOR COVERAGE OF STORMS TO BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED DUE TO WEAKER SURFACE FORCING FROM THE DRYLINE,
SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED EASTWARD (PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE)
AND WEAKER SYNOPTIC ASCENT AS THE MAIN WAVE LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA. THEREFORE, A COUPLE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SEEMS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO, WHICH ALMOST ALL CAMS ARE PORTRAYING.
AS FOR HAZARDS, ALL HAZARDS ARE IN PLAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME TO BE SIGNIFICANT, ESPECIALLY IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE
THE MAIN STORM MODE. THE MAIN HAZARD APPEARS TO BE VERY LARGE
HAIL GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENT BEING CONDUCIVE FOR
LARGE AND STRONG UPDRAFTS, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS FIRE EARLIER IN
THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW THAT EARLIER IN THE DAY, LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE A BIT WEAKER, DECREASING THE
TORNADO RISK. HOWEVER, STRONG STORM RELATIVE INFLOW IS SEEN ON
MODELED HODOGRAPHS. THIS PAIRED WITH WEAKER SUB-HGZ CAPE, BUT
VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, LAPSE RATES, AND MUCAPE ABOVE THE
HGZ WOULD PROMOTE LARGE HAIL, POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT, UP TO
LIMES TO TENNIS BALLS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
AS THE STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD (OR IF THEY INITIATE LATER IN
THE DAY FURTHER EAST), LARGE HAIL WILL STILL BE A HAZARD, BUT
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-30 KTS 0-1
KM SHEAR, CHARACTERIZED BY LONG, CURVED HODOGRAPHS RESULTING IN
200-300 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH. WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A BIT
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, DECREASING STREAMWISENESS OF THE HODOGRAPH,
THIS WILL STILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR TORNADOES WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TORNADOES. SPC CURRENTLY HAS US IN A 5% CIG1 TORNADO
RISK ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 63. THE 5% IS DUE TO THE
EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE OF STORMS (AND BY ASSOCIATION, LOW
COVERAGE OF TORNADOES), BUT THE CIG1 I'D WAGER IS ON THE UPPER-
END OF THE SPECTRUM, CLOSER TO A CIG2, GIVEN HREF/RAP
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER FIELDS APPROACHING 3-6. THE REFS
IS A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH A CORRIDOR OF 8-10 STP. THEREFORE, IF
A TORNADO FORMS, THE REASONABLE MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF IT
(DEFINED AS AN APPROXIMATE 10% CHANCE) COULD BE EF2-EF3. THIS
STILL MEANS AN APPROXIMATE 80-90% CHANCE THAT ANY TORNADO WOULD
BE EF0-EF1, BUT GIVEN THE FORECASTED ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS A
10% CHANCE OF ANY GIVEN TORNADO BEING AN EF2-EF3.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO MERGE INTO A LINE AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH, OVERTAKING THE DRYLINE AND
PROVIDING STRONGER SURFACE FORCING. WHILE THIS APPEARS TO OCCUR
AFTER THE STORMS LEAVE OUR AREA, IF IT DOES OCCUR BEFOREHAND,
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60-70 MPH WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY HAZARD.
STORMS SHOULD CLEAR OUR EASTERN AREA BY LATE EVENING.
NOTE ON FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGH TUESDAY:
DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS,
THE OVERALL FLOODING RISK IS LOW. THAT SAID, SOILS ARE STILL
PRETTY SATURATED, SO IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR ANY GIVEN STORM
OR TRAINING STORMS TO PRODUCE A LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK. THIS IS
THE CAUSE FOR THE MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
LINGERING MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY:
SINCE THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, THE COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF MISSOURI. MEANWHILE,
ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WILL BE EJECTING OFF THE ROCKIES
TUESDAY. GLOBAL AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL LIFT
THE FRONT A BIT NORTHWARD, BRINGING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR BACK TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI AREAS. THIS WILL BRING
A LINGERING MARGINAL SEVERE RISK TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THAT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAK SURFACE WINDS
AND RESULTING SHEAR, BUT ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS ABOVE THE SURFACE,
SUGGESTING A LARGE HAIL THREAT WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY
STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY DRY WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK ONWARD:
THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MAKES ITS FINAL PUSH SOUTHWARD AFTER
TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND ONWARDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S THROUGH SATURDAY.
DURING THIS PERIOD, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
15-35% CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POLAR
JET BRANCH WILL OVERLAP WITH A SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE IN CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE RESULT WILL BE A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. STRATIFORM RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY LIFT NORTH
INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY (15-35% CHANCE). AT THE
MOMENT, IT APPEARS ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD BE VERY LOW TO
NON-EXISTENT WITH THIS ROUND OF RAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
A TRICKY TAF FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE 06Z PERIOD. WHILE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT 10-15 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 KTS AT TIMES, LOW-END CHANCES OF STORMS (15-40%)
WILL EXIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AFTER 10Z. THE TWO MAIN PERIODS
LOOK TO BE EARLY MORNING (BETWEEN 10-18Z) AS A BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE TAF SITES, THEN AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD (21-05Z) AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM KANSAS. HAVE
INCLUDED PROB30 FOR THESE TIMES, THOUGH EVEN WITH THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN THESE INTERVALS, MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT
TIMING, LEADING TO A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS DURING THE WHOLE
PERIOD. ANY HEALTHY STORM THAT DOES IMPACT THE TAF SITE WILL
HARBOR THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS TO LIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS, ESPECIALLY IF THEY
OCCUR DURING THE LATTER TIMEFRAME (21-05Z).
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...PRICE
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