317
FXUS63 KSGF 100536
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1236 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER (20-50%)
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
- HIGHS IN THE 80S TODAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES
THEN OCCURS SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE 70S AND 80S RETURN FOR
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE
POSSIBLE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
SUNNY SKIES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME WEAK UNCAPPED INSTABILITY, SO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54
THIS EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO PORTIONS
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE BETTER
COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54 AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. MUCAPE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SO A
FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING AND SOME HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN RISK WITH ANY STORMS SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
COOLER AIR MASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE 70S THEN BACK INTO THE 80S ON
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE
AND COVERAGE IN THE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY BE LIMITED.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN MOVES EAST OVER
THE REGION LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL LIKELY WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
SCATTERED CLOUDS MOVE OVERHEAD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.
WIDESPREAD RAIN ISN'T EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND VFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST. WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY TOMORROW AND GUST JUST UNDER
15 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW-END RAIN CHANCES OCCUR NEAR
THE MO/AR BORDER SUNDAY EVENING.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SORIA
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