229
FXUS63 KSGF 101538
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1038 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER (20-50%) LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NEAR THE MO/AR
BORDER. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-44 FOR TUESDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY, THE MAIN THREATS
ARE 60 MPH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH SE OK/NW AR. TEMPERATURES
HAVE STAYED WARM IN THE LOW 60S TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER THE COURSE OF THIS
MORNING AND BRING A 20-50% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MO/AR
BORDER. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE, AND NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN. THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT DRY AIR THAT THE
FORECASTED CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THIS AFTERNOON THAT
ALREADY ELIMINATED OUR RAIN CHANCES FROM OCCURRING EARLIER. IF
RAIN DOES OCCUR, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AT <0.25". SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER 70S AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20
MPH. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MUCH COOLER IN THE 40S.
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY ON MONDAY FOR US AND
HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 80S WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. THE DRY
AIRMASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE WEEK AND DEWPOINTS
WILL STAY IN THE MID 40S MAKING MONDAY FEEL WARM BUT DRY. MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT
SUN MAY 10 2026
TUESDAY IS THE START OF OUR WARM UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON TUESDAY AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN TO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 80S. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING US OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-44 IN A MARGINAL RISK (1/4) FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THOSE
AREAS OVER SE KS AND CENTRAL MO ARE FORECAST TO HAVE THE BETTER
MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THOUGH, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS INSTABILITY AND HOW THE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PLAYS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RIGHT NOW, THE SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS ISOLATED WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING DOWN OUR DEWPOINTS AND FLIP OUR WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, BUT IT WON'T REALLY IMPACT OUR
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY AND DEWPOINTS
REALLY START TO INCREASE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL
CREEP INTO THE UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY AND DEWPOINTS REACH THE MID
60S AS WELL. THIS WILL MAKE IT FEEL HOT AND HUMID FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
A FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATE
THIS MORNING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA
AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WILL WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SOME SHOWER AND MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...WISE
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