063
FXUS63 KSGF 122318
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
618 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL MO
INTO SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING. MAIN RISK WILL BE WITH
DAMAGING WIND UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- THERE'S A 20-40% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA INTERMITTENTLY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IF YOU HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS NEXT WEEKEND, BE SURE TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE 4 CORNERS REGION INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
ALBERTA WITH AN UPPER LOW SHIFTING EAST IN THE PACIFIC TOWARDS
THE COAST OF OR/WA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WAS
OCCURRING OVER OUR AREA TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND
WILL HELP TO DRAW THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT.
THIS COLD FRONT WAS CURRENTLY POSITIONED FROM A LOW IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF MO AND SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHWESTERN KS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING NO CLOUDS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN MO. 12Z SOUNDING FROM SGF SHOWS A
LOT OF DRY AIR AND A DECENT CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
TONIGHT: FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH BETWEEN 9PM AND 2
AM. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND 0-6 SHEAR OVER SOUTHEAST KS
INTO WEST CENTRAL MO MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF A STRONG STORM IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP FROM MID TO LATE EVENING, HOWEVER INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAKENING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE LOOKS PRETTY WEAK.
CAMS DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS, HOWEVER COVERAGE(20%
OR LESS) CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD GIVEN THE NEGATIVES. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARDS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.
WEDNESDAY: NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SURFACE HIGH INTO
THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH A DRY AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE. MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN BACK TO THE NORTH INTO
EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY INCREASING
ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE. STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A DRYLINE
AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FURTHER
WEST IN KS AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
ON FRIDAY, ENSEMBLE MEAN 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEG C. THIS WOULD BE IN THE >90TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY BRINGS TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH CLOUD COVER OR UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER. THIS FITS FAIRLY WELL OR SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN THE 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM WHICH HAS UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH DECENT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND DEW POINTS IN THE
60S. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR IN OUR NORTHERN CWA ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
A DEEPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OCCURRING IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STORMS MAY BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT, TURNING FROM SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO
NORTHERLY BEHIND A DRY OVERNIGHT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A LAYER
OF CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 5-10KFT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT, BUT SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN AROUND
12Z. NORTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10KTS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...CAMDEN
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