698
FXUS63 KSGF 130638
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
138 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
- INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL EXPERIENCE MORE DRY TIME THAN NOT.
- MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI THURSDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME WEAK MUCAPE IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT A DRY AIR MASS IS ALSO IN PLACE
IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH IS LIMITING
ANY CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS LIFT IS NOT OVERLY STRONG TO
OVERCOME THE DRY AIR MASS. THEREFORE, A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT IS NOT MUCH COOLER THAN AHEAD OF IT, AS HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON,
JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY.
AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION
TODAY AND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND OFF TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY. AS TEMPERATURES START TO WARM, MIXING WILL OCCUR AND
WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND WITH MIXING
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP TO AROUND 20 TO 30%.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME WEAK MUCAPE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE DRY AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY FURTHER TO
THE EAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE (10-20%) WEST OF I-49 LATE TONIGHT AS LIFT FROM THE
WARM AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE DRY AIR WILL LIMIT COVERAGE SO
MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. THE LIFT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL, BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THOUGH IT IS
ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE THE DRY AIR MASS WINS OUT AND MOST IF NOT
ALL LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY. AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION, HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN
OZARKS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK THURSDAY NIGHT:
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE DRYLINE WILL SHIFT
THROUGH THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, AND
NEBRASKA. MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY WANING DIURNALLY AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI; HOWEVER, A
STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW FOR A
CONTINUED LOW SEVERE RISK INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE
STORMS WOULD BE ELEVATED IN NATURE, WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS AS THE PRIMARY RISK. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
OUTLINED LOCATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54 IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK:
ENSEMBLES DEPICT A MORE ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPING
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. FARTHER DOWN, 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 17 TO 20 DEG C RANGE, WHICH CORRELATES
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
CLIMATOLOGICALLY. FOR REFERENCE, AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE IN THE 75 TO 78 DEGREE RANGE.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
WILL WIGGLE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW,
WHICH, IN COMBINATION WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, COULD
PRODUCE INTERMITTENT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE MORE DRY TIME THAN NOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH, AND NBM PROBABILITIES OF 72-HR (FRI-SUN) RAINFALL TOTALS
GREATER THAN 1 INCH ARE 10% OR LESS.
A DEEPER, MORE PROMINENT TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE WESTERN
CONUS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHICH WILL ACT TO DRAW GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AS THIS WAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT SHIFT EAST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE WARM, MOIST, AND UNSTABLE AIR. AS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS, THE INCREASING SHEAR MAY ALLOW
FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME AI/ML GUIDANCE DOES
INDEED DEPICT SOME SIGNAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH
THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS TOO LOW AT
THIS POINT TO PROVIDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SPECIFICS. TO THAT END,
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS PORTRAY SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS IN BOTH THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND THE TIMING OF ITS
PASSAGE, LIMITING OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. FOR WHAT IT'S
WORTH, MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE SPEED OF
THIS SYSTEM, MEANING THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI ARE CURRENTLY FROM
MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT,
THE SUMMER- LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, WITH NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OCCURRING BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH CLOUDS
CLEARING SHORTLY BEHIND THE FRONT. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE/DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...WISE/DIDIO
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