216
FXUS63 KSGF 131832
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
132 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN MID TO UPPER 80S APPROACHING RECORDS.
- INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL EXPERIENCE MORE DRY TIME THAN NOT.
- MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI THURSDAY EVENING.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS STARTING TO SHIFT EAST AS AN UPPER WAVE
SHIFTS INTO WA/OR. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM TX INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS AND SASKATCHEWAN. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS TRACKING INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY, LEAVING OUR FORECAST AREA IN
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE TO THE EAST. THIS HAS BROUGHT A SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH A DRIER AIR MASS. DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE 30S AND 40S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S BRINGING RH VALUES
INTO THE 20S AND 30S. POLAR ORBITING SATELLITES PW LAYER
PRODUCTS SHOW THE DRIER AIR PUSHING THE MORE MOIST AIR SOUTH OF
THE CWA VERY WELL WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING A CLEAR SKY
THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH A CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S FOR LOWS.
THURSDAY: UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE AREA. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND SOME LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL SET UP WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE OVER
EASTERN OK/KS THURSDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP
TO OUR WEST WHERE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE,
BUT POPS LOOK PRETTY MINIMAL IN OUR CWA, GENERALLY LESS THAN
20% FOR ANYTHING THAT MAY DRIFT IN HERE FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A LOW LEVEL JET
FEEDING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND MAY
GENERATE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IN OUR AREA WITH THE
BETTER CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION NORTH OF US CLOSER TO THE
FRONAL BOUNDARY. SIMILAR SETUP THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY, BUT ALSO A CAP IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA. WITH 850 TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN THE 17-20 DEG C RANGE STILL LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WHICH WILL COME CLOSE TO SOME RECORDS
(SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THOSE RECORDS/YEARS).
AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD IT IS EXPECTED
TO MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION MONDAY INTO WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD STORM CHANCES TO OUR FORECAST
AREA ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN.
OUTSIDE OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD, ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA TOWARDS MIDWEEK CONTINUING THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
FOR THE 18Z TAFS, DRY AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA BEHIND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A CLEAR SKY
AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KTS AT TIMES. A LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO THE
EAST. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN CWA ON THURSDAY MORNING, HOWEVER WITH CHANCES
GENERALLY LESS THAN 20%, WILL NOT INTRODUCE INTO ANY OF THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 15:
KSGF: 87/1957
KJLN: 89/1911
KUNO: 87/1957
MAY 16:
KJLN: 89/2001
MAY 17:
KSGF: 88/2001
KJLN: 89/2001
KVIH: 92/1996
KUNO: 89/1980
MAY 18:
KSGF: 88/1962
KJLN: 90/1987
KVIH: 88/1996
KUNO: 89/2001
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES:
MAY 15:
KSGF: 67/1941
KJLN: 72/1941
KUNO: 55/1998
KVIH: 65/2023
MAY 16:
KSGF: 69/2015
KJLN: 73/1974
KUNO: 67/2015
KVIH: 70/1899
MAY 17:
KSGF: 69/1974
KJLN: 75/1974
KUNO: 68/2017
KVIH: 68/2017
MAY 18:
KSGF: 68/1996
KJLN: 74/1996
KUNO: 66/2017
KVIH: 70/1996
MAY 19:
KSGF: 69/2013
KJLN: 74/1996
KUNO: 70/1996
KVIH: 70/1996
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
CLIMATE...LINDENBERG
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