550
FXUS63 KSGF 141702
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1202 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN MID TO UPPER 80S APPROACHING RECORDS.
- INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE
MORE DRY TIME THAN NOT.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED SOUTH OVER THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN OFF
TO THE EAST ON TODAY. A DRY AIR MASS ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL OVERALL DROP INTO IN THE MIDDLE 40S
ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF
THE VALLEYS ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS DROP TO AROUND THE 40
DEGREE MARK.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL START TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE
AREA THIS MORNING. SOME MUCAPE WILL DEVELOP WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION, BUT A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE WHICH WILL LIMIT
HOW MUCH OF THE MUCAPE CAN BE REALIZED. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP, WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF I-49. DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FARTHER TO THE EAST,
SO SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE THEY CROSS HIGHWAY 65. THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND MAY NOT BE
MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS TO
THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WARMING AIR MASS ADVECTS IN FROM
THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL ALSO START TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST BUT WILL BE SLOW TO REACH THE PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 25 TO 35% ARE EXPECTED EAST OF
HIGHWAY 65. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST,
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE AND BE GUSTY AT
TIMES THIS MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 WHERE GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL OCCUR AT TIMES.
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
TODAY AND INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THE WARMER AIR MASS
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA A CAP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI, WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND A WEAKER CAP NORTH OF THE
AREA. SOME SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN EASTERN KANSAS AND THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE EAST
INTO MISSOURI LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE CAP WILL HOLD STRONGER ACROSS OUR
AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THE CAP CAN WEAKEN ENOUGH SOME
STORMS COULD CLIP LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54, AND A STRONG
STORM COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL THIS IS A LOW RISK AT THIS
TIME. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE DISTURBANCE BUT THE CAP
SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
A WARM AIR MASS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN A CAP BEING IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI ON FRIDAY.
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE A ZONAL RIDE PATTER WHERE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MORE THROUGH THE REGION AT TIMES BUT THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE FOR SHEAR WILL BE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS INCREASING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. THE CAP WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, SO
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF THE CAP COULD WEAKEN AGAIN TO THE
NORTH SOME STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AND MAYBE A STRONG STORM OF TWO
BUT THE TREND IS FOR THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND:
A SIMILARLY WARM AND CAPPED AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER, A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE THAT TRANSITS THE SYNOTPIC-SCALE ZONAL PATTERN MAY
PROVIDE A BIT MORE LIFT THAT COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MORE SHALLOW, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING. IF
THESE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS DO INDEED MANIFEST, THEY COULD KNOCK
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES, WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO THE LOW
80S. IF NOT, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 DEGREES GIVEN THE ALREADY-WARM MORNING TEMPERATURES.
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY
AS A DEEPER, MORE PROMINENT TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS SHIFT WILL ACT TO DRAW GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
INCREASING SURFACE DEW POINTS, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LAND IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. FURTHERMORE, SOME DAILY RECORD
TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BOTH FOR
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. IN
FACT, TEMPERATURES MAY FAIL TO COOL BELOW 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
WIDESPREAD RAIN & THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY:
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IT DOES SO,
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT INCREASING DEW POINTS UNDER A
MODERATE MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SUPERPOSITION OF
MOISTURE, SHEAR, AND LIFT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WARM, MOIST
AIRMASS, WITH THE CURRENT MODEL PARAMETER SPACE SUGGESTING AT
LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. INDEED, ML AND AI
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO PING A BROAD SIGNAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF OUR CWA IN A 15% SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK ON MONDAY AS OF
THIS WRITING. IF THE WAVE AND FRONT ARE SLOWER/LESS PROGRESSIVE,
THEN A SEVERE RISK MAY PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THIS FEATURE, HOWEVER. SOME MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY PIVOT THROUGH THE
UPPER-MIDWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK, WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
LAGS BEHIND BY A DAY OR SO. THIS EFFECTIVELY WOULD RESULT IN
SLOW-MOVING OR STALLED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND
INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS IN THE COMING
DAYS TO BETTER EVALUATE THESE POTENTIAL SCENARIOS. OVERALL, HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
FOR THE 18Z TAFS, SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN MO AND
SOUTHEAST KS WITH A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE RETURN. A FEW ECHOES
ON RADAR, HOWEVER GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS OVER THE AREA AND
THERMAL CAP, NOT EXPECTING MUCH AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION REACHING
THE GROUND. SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF
40-50 KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
THIS EVENING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 15:
KSGF: 87/1957
KJLN: 89/1911
KUNO: 87/1957
MAY 16:
KJLN: 89/2001
MAY 17:
KSGF: 88/2001
KJLN: 89/2001
KVIH: 92/1996
KUNO: 89/1980
MAY 18:
KSGF: 88/1962
KJLN: 90/1987
KVIH: 88/1996
KUNO: 89/2001
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES:
MAY 15:
KSGF: 67/1941
KJLN: 72/1941
KUNO: 55/1998
KVIH: 65/2023
MAY 16:0
KSGF: 69/2015
KJLN: 73/1974
KUNO: 67/2015
KVIH: 70/1899
MAY 17:
KSGF: 69/1974
KJLN: 75/1974
KUNO: 68/2017
KVIH: 68/2017
MAY 18:
KSGF: 68/1996
KJLN: 74/1996
KUNO: 66/2017
KVIH: 70/1996
MAY 19:
KSGF: 69/2013
KJLN: 74/1996
KUNO: 70/1996
KVIH: 70/1996
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE/DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
CLIMATE...LINDENBERG
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