549
FXUS63 KSGF 161143
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
643 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES (50-65%) OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BY
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
SATELLITE IR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWED AN OVERALL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN OVER THE OZARKS WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO IOWA WHERE STORMS WERE
OCCURING. WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WERE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE OZARKS. LOOKING AT THE
00Z SGF SOUNDING, NEARLY THE LOWEST 600MB WERE RATHER DRY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING BUT SCATTERED ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT.
THE BETTER CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS TONIGHT. CAMS DEVELOP A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER
NORTHERN MO AND TRACK IT SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO OUR NORTHERN
CWA BY EARLY MORNING, 5 TO 6 AM. ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE REMNANTS OF
A POTENTIAL MCS MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSOURI. BASE ON THESE FACTORS, MAINLY GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINING TO OUR NORTH.
STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN CENTRAL MO MAY
STILL POSE AN ISOLATED WIND RISK UP TO 60 MPH.
AROUND MIDNIGHT, SOME VERY LIGHT ELEVATED PRECIPITATION WAS HELPING
TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. THERE WERE ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING BOLTS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY, AND THE WIND GUSTS WERE OBSERVED QUITE FAR FROM THE
RADAR ECHOES AT TIMES. EVENTUALLY, THE PRECIPITATION DISAPPEARED,
BUT THE WIND GUSTS REMAINED. FOR THIS REASON, WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR CHEROKEE (KS), JASPER, LAWRENCE, NEWTON, MCDONALD, AND
BARRY COUNTIES UNTIL 7AM. THIS MAY BE CANCELED EARLY.
FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE FORECAST IS DRY OVER THE AREA
AS THE UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST DEEPENS AND THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. THESE MAY MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-49 LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. MARGINAL
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY RISK WITH A LINEAR STORM MODE. SYNOPTIC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH ENSEMBLE
PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOWING NEARLY 100% CHANCE OF WINDS GUSTING OVER
30 MPH BOTH DAYS.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE, WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS REGION AS TEMPERATURES
STAY IN THE 60S AT NIGHT AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
ON MONDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DRAPING SOUTHWEST. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION LOOKS
TO KICK OFF ACROSS THE AREA AS OUR DAYTIME HIGHS WARM TO THE MID-80S
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THIS
ACTIVITY MAKES UP MOST OF MONDAY'S PRECIPITATION, WITH THE BEST
SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET, HIGHER LAPSE RATES, AND MORE INSTABILITY. SPC
IS USING "OUTBREAK" WORDING WITH THIS SETUP, THOUGH THE HIGHER RISK
EXISTS NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA AT THIS TIME. NEVERTHELESS, ALL HAZARDS
APPEAR POSSIBLE, EVEN FOR US. SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY
MONDAY AS THE APPROACHING FRONT CAUSES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN.
THE FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BUT PASSES SLOWLY,
PERHAPS EVEN STALLING AT TIMES. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SEVERE
THREAT THROUGH TUESDAY, AS WELL AS A RISK FOR FLOODING DUE TO THE
SLOW MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING. THE FRONT PUSHES THE WARM
AIRMASS WE'VE BEEN ADVECTING IN OUT, AND AREAS WEST OF 65 WILL ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY WHILE AREAS IN THE EAST
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER BEFORE THE FRONT REACHES THEM.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BARELY BREAK 70 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 50S. POPS OF 20-40% LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AS THE FRONT STALLS
OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE IN ONCE MORE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK, HOPEFULLY ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMER, DRIER
WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-20 KTS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS
AT JLN TODAY AND UP TO 25 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING,
BUT EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS TO THE TAF SITES. SCATTERED CEILINGS
AROUND 20 KFT TONIGHT, LOWERING TO 10-15 KFT FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER 12Z AT SGF AND EAST AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS BY, THEN
BECOMING SKC AFTER 18Z.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 16:
KJLN: 89/2001
MAY 17:
KSGF: 88/2001
KJLN: 89/2001
KVIH: 92/1996
KUNO: 89/1980
MAY 18:
KSGF: 88/1962
KJLN: 90/1987
KVIH: 88/1996
KUNO: 89/2001
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES:
MAY 16:
KSGF: 69/2015
KJLN: 73/1974
KUNO: 67/2015
KVIH: 70/1899
MAY 17:
KSGF: 69/1974
KJLN: 75/1974
KUNO: 68/2017
KVIH: 68/2017
MAY 18:
KSGF: 68/1996
KJLN: 74/1996
KUNO: 66/2017
KVIH: 70/1996
MAY 19:
KSGF: 69/2013
KJLN: 74/1996
KUNO: 70/1996
KVIH: 70/1996
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NELSON
LONG TERM...NELSON
AVIATION...NELSON
CLIMATE...LINDENBERG
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