232
FXUS63 KSGF 312320
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
620 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT- LINE
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN BROADLY ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI TONIGHT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/AXIS OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS LOW.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH BETTER RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN AN OTHERWISE STAGNANT
BLOCKING PATTERN IS PIVOTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A BROAD RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD OVER
THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A STALLED FRONT IS
DRAPED FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ON RADAR, A FEW LOOSELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS/STORM CLUSTERS
ARE DRIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI RIDING A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTION.
OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE SAY THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL
MOIST AND PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND
MUCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
IS MODEST AT 20-30 KT.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
AFTERNOON: DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE SHEAR IS MARGINAL, THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED
FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH THIS STRONG
INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED, WEAKLY FORCED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HAIL TO QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS. PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE IS LOW HERE.
EVENING/OVERNIGHT: WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH A CORRIDOR OF
INCREASING SHEAR IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI LOOK
TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. FURTHERMORE, DECREASING SURFACE CIN AND STRONG 35-45 K
THETA-E DIFFERENCES SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER- ESTABLISHED COLD
POOLS THAT MAY RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF AN MCS. STORM MOTION
WOULD INITIALLY BE EASTERLY OR EVEN NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI BUT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS STORMS CROSS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI, FOLLOWING THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND FORWARD-PROPAGATING CORFIDI
VECTORS IN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE, UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE.
HAZARDS: IF SUPERCELLS DO FORM ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI (I-49 AND WEST) THIS EVENING, THERE WILL BE A SHORT
WINDOW WHERE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS AND WINDS UP TO 70 MPH WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LOW- LEVEL SHEAR WILL INITIALLY BE WEAK,
BUT RAP OUTPUT SUGGESTS 0-1 KM SRH MODESTLY INCREASES TO AROUND
100-125 M2S2 THROUGHOUT THE EVENING, WHICH IS MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW-END TORNADO RISK, PARTICULARLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT. AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THE EASTERN OZARKS OVERNIGHT, WIND GUSTS
OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT TONIGHT:
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS TONIGHT WITH PWATS OF 1.6"
TO 1.9", LIKELY ALLOWING FOR RAIN RATES OF 1-2"/HR. WHILE STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE MORE PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT THAN THEY WERE LAST
NIGHT, A VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE TRAINING STORMS OVER THE SAME AREA.
HOW MUCH RAIN: GUIDANCE VARIES QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST STORMS AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
(THEREFORE PRECLUDING FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE); HREF LPMM DEPICTS
AN AXIS OF 2 TO 4 INCH TOTALS NEAR THE HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR,
WHILE THE REFS SHOWS SIMILAR PRECIP TOTALS FARTHER NORTH ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THERE IS A BROAD SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI TONIGHT. IN
REALITY, THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE FLOOD RISK WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE OUTLOOK MAY SUGGEST, BUT THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI TONIGHT.
WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY:
THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, BRINGING
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH IT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST MO AND SOUTHEAST KS. GREATER CLOUD COVER--AND POSSIBLY
EVEN LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING--ACROSS THE EASTERN
OZARKS AND SOUTH- CENTRAL MISSOURI MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS THAN THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
ENSEMBLES SHOW GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN
PERSISTING THROUGH MID-WEEK, MEANING DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS. INDEED,
POPS REMAIN LESS THAN 20% THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NBM PERCENTILE
DATA SUGGEST DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS DEPICTS INCREASING VARIABILITY IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN STARTING ON FRIDAY, THOUGH MOST SHOW THE PATTERN FINALLY
BREAKING DOWN WITH THE RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE PERIOD. A FEW
MID-LEVEL CU OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OFF TO THE EAST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI OVERNIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES REMAINING
NORTH/EAST OF THE TAF SITES, BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF
PROB30 FOR SGF ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TURN CLOCKWISE, BECOMING NORTHERLY BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...NELSON
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