909
FXUS63 KSGF 011849
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
149 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARD IS ISOLATED
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60-70 MPH, WITH SECONDARY RISKS OF LARGE HAIL
UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS EVENING/
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING:
- IMPACTS: SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED 60-70 MPH WINDS AND HAIL
UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS. LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- DETAILS: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-44.
THESE STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE AS OF 1:20PM AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE
AREA.
- CONFIDENCE: 80-90% CONFIDENCE IN WARNINGS BEING REQUIRED.
- METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS: A WEAK FRONT PUSHING SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO INITIATE CONVECTION IN AN AREA OF AGITATED
CUMULUS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 4,500+ J/KG WILL SUPPORT AGGRESSIVE
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT, BUT VERY WEAK BULK SHEAR OF < 20 KTS
WILL PREVENT ORGANIZATION. THIS DECREASES THE HAIL THREAT
SUBSTANTIALLY, WITH GENERALLY SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
EXPECTED. WILL ADVERTISE UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE. MAIN HAZARD
WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60-70 MPH DUE TO
0-3KM THETA-E DIFFERENCES OF 30-40 K. OPSTI VALUES UP TO
14-16 ALSO SHOWS STRONG SUPPORT FOR SEVERE PULSE STORMS.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
QUIET THOSE MOST OF THIS PERIOD, BUT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE
THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND:
- IMPACTS: TOO EARLY TO TELL, BUT WILL BE WATCHING FOR ANY
FLOODING THREATS. RISK APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME, THOUGH.
- DETAILS: MOVING BACK INTO A RAINY PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
- CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
- METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS: THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS KEEPS THE AREA FAIRLY QUIET WILL SHIFT EAST LATE THIS
WEEK AS UPPER TROUGHING SETTLES OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WETTER PATTERN. ENSEMBLE PWATS ARE GENERALLY
1.5-2", WHICH IS AROUND 150% OF NORMAL. THIS MAY SUPPORT A
FLOODING THREAT, BUT IMPORTANT DETAILS RELATED TO THAT HAVE A
LOW PREDICTABILITY AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
A WEAK FRONT OVER KSGF AND KJLN AT 18Z TODAY WILL PUSH SOUTH,
KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF THESE SITES. KBBG WILL
LIKELY SEE CONVECTION NEARBY OR OVERHEAD, WITH LARGE HAIL AND
ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
PULSE/MICROBURST THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING. THERE IS LESS THAN A 30% CHANCE OF FOG
TONIGHT AT KBBG. FOR NOW, LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...TITUS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page