241
FXUS63 KSGF 030841
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
341 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 40-70% CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN FRIDAY AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. MONITORING FOR LIMITED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
- TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FAVORED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
NEXT WEEK, BUT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVERHEAD TONIGHT DUE TO THE CONVECTION OVER NE
OK. WE ARE CAUGHT IN BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST. SO FAR, THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS WINNING OVER OUR AREA. DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN
AND EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS KEPT CONVECTION IN OK. DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE 50S EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL STAY THERE FOR MOST OF
THE DAY BRINGING US A PLEASANT DAY AHEAD. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY.
THURSDAY WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY BUT WILL FEEL WARMER WITH WINDS
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DEWPOINTS START TO
INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL END UP IN THE MID 60S WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH A SWEEPING COLD FRONT BRINGING US SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. DUE TO THE TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY FALL NEAR
CENTRAL MO AROUND 1" WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH
(THIS ONE LOCATED OVER OK) WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND DROP
RAIN OVER SOUTHERN MO. AREAS COULD SEE AROUND 1" WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WITH THE TRACK OF THESE TWO LOWS,
EVERYONE AT LEAST SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
A MOIST AIRMASS CREEPS IN AS THE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO PUSH
FURTHER EAST TOWARDS EASTERN OK. DEWPOINTS CREEP INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH OUR RAINY PATTERN
RETURNING. RIGHT NOW, CHANCE FOR RAIN IS ABOUT 40-70% FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NOT EVERYDAY WILL BE AN ALL DAY WASHOUT,
BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
WILL BE HIGH ONCE AGAIN IN THE 1.5" RANGE FOR THIS WEEKEND.
THAT MEANS THAT ANY SHOWERS WE DO SEE WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS AND COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING WITHIN BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS IS LIKELY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ELEVATED
RIVER LEVELS AND SATURATED SOILS DUE TO LAST WEEK'S CONVECTION.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK, EXPECT A WARM AND MUGGY
START WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S.
LOWS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD ALSO STAY FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID
60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10KTS WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN LESS THAN
10 PERCENT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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