084
FXUS63 KSGF 040828
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
328 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 30-50% CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 63. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY
(60-80%). NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MONITORING
FOR LIMITED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
- TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FAVORED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
NEXT WEEK, BUT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S BY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVERHEAD AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE AREA. LOWS ARE IN THE MID 60S TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES. TODAY MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS
STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE 10 DEGREES
HIGHER TODAY THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AS THEY TOP OUT IN THE
MID 60S. CLOUDS ALSO START TO INCREASE TODAY BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER 80S. A SHORTWAVE ALSO MOVES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING A CHANCE (30-50%) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF RIGHT NOW, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUB-SEVERE AND VERY ISOLATED. CAMS HAVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
REMAINING WEST OF HIGHWAY 63 WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE.
SO, NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN TODAY AND WHERE THERE IS RAIN,
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AT <0.50". ANY REMAINING CONVECTION
WILL DISSIPATE AS DIURNAL HEATING WANES THIS EVENING.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH A SWEEPING WEAK FRONT BRINGING US A CHANCE (15-30%)
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DUE TO THE TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. NOT EVERYONE
WILL SEE RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY, AND NO WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. FRIDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH
(THIS ONE LOCATED OVER OK) WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND
DROP RAIN OVER SOUTHERN MO. A MOIST AIRMASS CREEPS IN AND DEWPOINTS
INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH
OUR RAINY PATTERN RETURNING. RIGHT NOW, CHANCE FOR RAIN IS
20-40% FOR SATRUDAY AFTERNOON SUNDAY IS 60-80% AND FEATURES THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND. NOT EVERYDAY WILL BE AN
ALL DAY WASHOUT, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERMITTENT RAIN
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A
THREAT AND ANY SHOWERS WE DO SEE WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS AND COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING WITHIN BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS LIKELY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS AND SATURATED SOILS DUE TO LAST WEEK'S
RAINFALL.
AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, EXPECT LOW 80S AND THEN
OUR WARM UP STARTS NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS INCREASE INTO THE UPPER
80S BY WEDNESDAY. IT WILL FEEL WARM AND MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 70S BY MID-WEEK. LOWS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD ALSO
STAY FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 60S AND LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND 5-10 KT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z. AFTER 14Z, 8-13 KT SURFACE WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY, INCREASING MOISTURE. THEREFORE, SOME LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14Z. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON IF
THESE CIGS BECOME MVFR. FOR NOW, THE CHANCE IS <30%, KEEPING
GREATER MENTION OF AROUND 4 KFT BKN CIGS BETWEEN 14-02Z.
BETWEEN 18-00Z, SOME POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE AREA, WITH ONLY A 30% CHANCE FOR
ANY OF THEM TO BRIEFLY IMPACT THE VICINITIES OF THE TAF SITES.
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WOULD BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THESE.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...PRICE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page