397
FXUS63 KSGF 052022
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
322 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SCATTERED STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY (90% LIKELIHOOD). NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
- MONITORING FOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN THE WPC SLIGHT RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
EASTERN AREAS IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY FAVORED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SCATTERED STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY (90% LIKELIHOOD). NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME:
- IMPACTS: TYPICAL SHOWER AND NON-SEVERE STORM IMPACTS.
- DETAILS: A FEW ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60. GENERALLY
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THE SAME ON SATURDAY.
- CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS: LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTH OUT OF TEXAS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
EVEN SO, COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SCATTERED UNTIL THE
TROUGH AND GREATER MOISTURE ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
MONITORING FOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN THE WPC SLIGHT RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
EASTERN AREAS IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.
- IMPACTS: POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND LIGHTNING LIKELY.
- DETAILS: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL MAY LEAD TO FLOODING, BUT LOCATIONS AND
AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
- CONFIDENCE: CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES IS HIGH. CONFIDENCE IN
FLOODING POTENTIAL AND LOCATIONS IS LOW TO MEDIUM.
- METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS: MOISTURE INCREASED (PWATS OF
1.75-2.0 INCHES, OR ABOUT 150-175% OF NORMAL) WILL MOVE IN
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA. MOISTURE VALUES WILL NOT BE TOO UNUSUAL FROM A
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE, WITH CFSR 30 YEAR CLIMO SHOWING
RECURRENCE OF 1 DAY EVERY 1-2 YEARS FOR THE 3 WEEK REFERENCE
PERIOD. IN OTHER WORDS, WHILE MOISTURE IS ABOVE NORMAL, IT'S
NOT ABNORMAL TO SEE THIS LEVEL OF MOISTURE. LARGE SCALE
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ON
SUNDAY THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY. LACKING A STATIONARY FRONT AS A
TRAINING MECHANISM, FLOODING WILL RELY MORE ON CONVECTIVE
OUTCOMES FOR POSSIBLE TRAINING, WHICH REDUCES PREDICTABILITY
AND CONFIDENCE. LPMM IS TYPICALLY QUITE HELPFUL AT DIAGNOSING
LOCALIZED HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS, BUT REFS ONLY GOES OUT
THROUGH 7PM SUNDAY. EVEN SO, THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD, 24
HOUR LPMM VALUES ARE LOCALIZED 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN. KEEP IN
MIND, ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY.
GENERALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY ARE IN THE 1-3
INCH RANGE. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ONCE CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY FAVORED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- IMPACTS: HEAT IMPACTS, BUT MORE LIKELY NOT REACHING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA GIVEN CURRENT DATA.
- DETAILS: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. MORE LIKELY TO BREAK RECORD WARM
LOW TEMPERATURES THAN RECORD WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S. MID-70S DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO ABNORMALLY HIGH HEAD
INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
- CONFIDENCE: NBM PROBABILITY OF HEAT INDEX > 100 F RANGES FROM
< 20% OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO 50-80% OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA.
- METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS: AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL LEAD TO A BUILDUP OF HEAT. ENSEMBLE
CLIMATOLOGY TOOLS ARE NOT INDICATING THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE
TOO ANOMALOUS AT GENERALLY 1 DAY EVERY 1-2 YEARS RELATIVE TO
CFSR CLIMO. HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL BE UNUSUALLY HIGH. CLOSEST
PROXY TO SURFACE MOISTURE IN THE CLIMO IS 925MB SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY, WHICH IS SHOWN TO BE OUTSIDE THE CLIMO RANGE (QUITE
UNSEAL). THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY HUMID CONDITIONS MORE
TYPICAL OF MID-SUMMER AND WILL AID IN KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
WARMER. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
RECORD WARM HIGHS, BUT ARE NEAR OR EXCEED RECORD WARM LOWS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
LOW END VFR TO HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. KBBG MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. 30% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR
CEILINGS THEN DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...TITUS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page