533
FXUS63 KSGF 061752
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1252 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 60-90% MORNING RAIN CHANCES TURNS INTO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON (30-60% CHANCE). MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY (90% CHANCE). NO SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- 1-3 INCH PER HOUR DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE, THERE IS A SLIGHT (2 OF 4) RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID-90S TO LOWER 100S. FIRST HEAT OF
THE SEASON AND WARM NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES MAY HEIGHTEN HEAT-
RELATED IMPACTS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
CLOSED LOW CHURNING OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS A SEPARATE
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES LED TO A DECAYING COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI. BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES, WESTERLY FLOW OVERTOP SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
EVIDENT ACROSS OUR AREA. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS KEEPING MOISTURE
PLENTIFUL, KEEPING NIGHTTIME LOWS MILD IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
60-90% MORNING RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-DAY:
A NARROW RIBBON OF DRY AIR CAN BE SEEN EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW
IN TX/OK, MARKING THE AREA OF GREATEST POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION (PVA). THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH INTO OUR
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH PVA BEING THE MAIN SOURCE OF
LIFT AND GREATER MUCAPE VALUES BEING ADVECTED NORTH OF THE
REGION, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHT TO MODERATE
THROUGH THE MORNING (60-90% CHANCE SOUTH OF I-44). STILL, THE
HREF MEAN KEEPS 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE, SO EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
30-60% CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON:
AS DAYTIME MIXING PROGRESSES, WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL
DISSIPATE, TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
CHURNING CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC ASCENT. COVERAGE OF
THESE STORMS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN DUE TO LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY IN CAMS AND UPPER 70S TEMPERATURES LIMITING
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT SUBTLE LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT WITHIN A MOIST AND RATHER UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT, WHICH
LEADS ONE TO BELIEVE THAT NUMEROUS SMALL-IN-AREA SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR CWA (30-60% CHANCE).
OUR 00Z BALLOON SOUNDING DEPICTED DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH A PWAT VALUE OF 1.55 IN. THIS IS ALREADY >90TH
PERCENTILE OF PWATS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACCORDING TO THE SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. WITH THE ORIGIN OF THE CLOSED LOW BEING
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, AND MERIDIONAL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM PULLING IN DEEP GULF MOISTURE, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE
TO 1.8-2.0 INCHES, WHICH IS AROUND MAXIMUM FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS PAIRED WITH TALL, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND SLOW-
MOVING STORMS WILL LEAD TO 1-3 INCH PER HOUR RAIN RATES WITHIN
ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A VERY ISOLATED AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN THE SAME THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY CHURNS LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST. AS
THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES MORE ABSORBED IN THE BACKGROUND FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, IT WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A SHORTWAVE
SHAPE WITH A SHARPER TROUGH SHAPE OVER WESTERN MISSOURI AND INTO
THE ARKLATEX REGION. THE SHARPER SHAPE WILL INCREASE PVA AND
SYNOPTIC ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS A RESPONSE, NOSING
INTO THE AREA WITH INCREASED WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT (80-90% CHANCE).
SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS THE SAME, 1-3 IN/HR RATES ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER, WITH GREATER LIFT
INTRODUCED TO THE AREA, COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
BE GREATER. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL, LEADING TO A SLIGHT (2 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
RISK CONTINUES ON INTO MONDAY, EAST OF HIGHWAY 65, AS THE
SHORTWAVE AXIS CONTINUES EASTWARD.
SINCE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED, PLACEMENT OF THE
GREATEST RAINFALL AND SUBSEQUENT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON WHERE SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SEE
MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON WHERE THE
GREATEST FORCING AND COVERAGE OF STORMS BECOMES CLEAR (AND WHERE
THEY MAY LINE UP WITH PREVIOUS RAINFALL), A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
ISSUED.
ADDITIONALLY, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW THE SHORTWAVE EVOLVES
AND PHASES WITH THE BACKGROUND FLOW. IF WINDS ALOFT INCREASE,
THERE MAY BECOME ENOUGH SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
PERSISTENT HEAT ENTERS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK:
ONCE THE WAVE EXITS THE REGION, GLOBAL ENSEMBLES SHOW A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SETTING UP OVER THE OZARKS AS AN ENERGETIC
TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ESATS DEPICT THIS RIDGE TO
POSSESS >97.5TH PERCENTILE MID-LEVEL GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FURTHERMORE, THE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE IS PROGGED TO BE >99.5TH PERCENTILE.
THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO HEAT
INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 90S TO THE LOWER 100S
(REACHING NEAR 110 F IN SOME SPOTS).
WHILE THIS IS NOT UNCOMMON HEAT FOR THE OZARKS TO EXPERIENCE, IT
IS RATHER ATYPICAL FOR EARLY JUNE AS CONTEXTUALIZED BY OUR
"NORMAL" MAX HEAT INDEX OF AROUND 97 F FOR EARLY JUNE AS
OUTLINED BY THE CPC. THE CPC GIVES AN 80-90% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING
THIS ABOVE NORMAL HEAT INDEX THRESHOLD AT ANY POINT NEXT WEEK.
WITH THIS BEING THE FIRST HEAT OF THE SEASON, NBM SPREADS
FORECASTING IT TO BE OVER MULTIPLE DAYS, AND WITH WARM NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF, HEAT IMPACTS
MAY BE SLIGHTLY HEIGHTENED FROM NORMAL 100-110 F HEAT INDEX
IMPACTS. THIS IS REFLECTED WITH A WIDESPREAD MAJOR RISK FOR
HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS
MEANS THE HEAT WILL LIKELY AFFECT THOSE WITHOUT COOLING OR
HYDRATION. EXTRA CARE FOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS SHOULD BE
EXERCISED COME NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
CEILINGS WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
HEAVY RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS
OF DRY TIME, THEN HEAVY RAIN WILL START AGAIN. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED, BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THIS
ACTIVITY. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO 1 TO 2 SM WITHIN THE HEAVIEST
BANDS OF RAIN. WINDS WILL STAY SOUTHERLY AND GUST UP TO 15 MPH
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ073-097-101.
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
MOZ055-066>069-077>081-088>096-101>105.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...SORIA
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