875
FXUS63 KSGF 221046
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
546 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LOCALIZED CORRIDOR OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MO
WILL SUPPORT FLASH FLOODING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS CORRIDOR FROM MCDONALD
COUNTY TO OZARK COUNTY.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (60-80%) RETURN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SLIGHT (2 OF 4) RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT WOULD SUPPORT FLASH FLOODING.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-60%) THROUGH LATE
WEEK, WITH AN ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
POTENTIAL. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
THIS MORNING:
RADAR CAPTURES THE EXTENT OF LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MO THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWS SINKS
SOUTH. RECENT MESOSCALE TRENDS SUGGEST THE FRONT IS STALLING
INTO THIS AREA, AND WILL SUPPORT REPEATED ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT, A TARGETED
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR MCDONALD, BARRY, STONE,
TANEY, AND OZARK COUNTIES IN MO. AMPLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE,
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES. THIS WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES UPWARDS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER A HOUR. THE
EXPERIMENTAL HIGH- RESOLUTION WARN-ON-FORECAST SYSTEM (WOFS) HAS
LATCHED ONTO THIS HEAVY RAINFALL TREND OVER SOUTHERN MO,
SUGGESTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS CORRIDOR OF 2 OF 4 INCHES,
WITH LOCALIZE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. A POTENTIAL MAX
QPF SCENARIO FROM WOFS EVEN SHOWS HIGHLY LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN
THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE. THIS IS A THE HIGH-END, WORST CASE
SCENARIO. ONE FACTOR THAT REMAINS UNKNOWN IS HOW THE MCS ACROSS
OK IMPACTS THIS FLOOD SETUP, AND IF IT PULLS THE ASSOCIATED
WEST-EAST BAND OF CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH. THIS IS NOT A
SCENARIO WE WANTED TO WAIT TO SEE PLAY OUT OR NOT, SO THE
TARGETED WATCH HAS BEEN PUT OUT. CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING MAY
OCCUR IF HIGHER END AMOUNTS PAN OUT, ESPECIALLY GIVEN LOCAL
TERRAIN AND BASIN CHARACTERISTICS IN THIS AREA.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT:
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S/NEAR80. THIS IS ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID TO LATE JUNE. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH CLOUDS
GRADUALLY CLEARING THIS EVENING. LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY:
AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
REGION WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO TRANSLATE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN AR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20-50%) RETURN BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES (60-80%)
INTO OVERNIGHT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH AN OVERNIGHT MCS
DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
WEDNESDAY:
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, GUIDANCE DEPICT THE POTENTIAL OF AN
OVERNIGHT MCS TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THIS MCS TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA, THOUGH
RECENT TRENDS DO CAPTURE AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEING
CLIPPED. THIS WILL BE BETTER RESOLVED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
UPDATES. MEANWHILE, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS PERSISTENT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY
WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH OVER THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
WEDNESDAY, AS GLEANED BY PWATS OF 1.6 TO 1.8 OVER SOUTHERN MO.
GIVEN THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL,
POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES, WPC HAS HIGHLIGHT PORTIONS OF THE
AREA IN SLIGHT (2 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL DETAILS WILL BE CAPTURED OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS, THOUGH THE TREND DOES SUGGEST AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE AREA. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, WITH ELEVATED STREAMFLOWS AND
SATURATED SOILS.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY:
AS WE GET INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK, AN ACTIVE PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE VARY ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SHORTWAVES, THOUGH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE
REGION TO SEE PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY
EACH ROUND. THIS PATTERN WILL FEATURE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS WEEK.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, GUIDANCE HINTS AT A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE
WITH THE JET STREAM BECOMING SUPPRESSED FURTHER NORTH WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A WARM UP IN
THE FORECAST, WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S NEAR 90.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
AN ONGOING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN
OK THIS MORNING, WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MO. MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE COMMON
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS.
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 MILES WITH LIGHT FOG
AT KSGF, AND 4 TO 6 MILES AT KJLN AND KBBG WITH RAIN. CEILINGS
AS LOW AS 200 TO 500 FEET AT KSGF, WITH 700 TO 1500 FEET CEILING
INTO KJLN AND KBBG. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST THROUGH
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COMPLEX
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FLIGHT CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS.
NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY, BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ101>105.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...PEREZ
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