923
FXUS63 KSGF 230701
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
201 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A MCS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING RISK WILL ACCOMPANY EACH ROUND. A SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 4)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CAPTURE THIS
POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT:
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CAPTURE LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN CONUS WITH ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS
PATTERN SUPPORTS WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION, WITH
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE AREA. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONED SOUTH.
FOR LATER TODAY, HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. MOST OF THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE, THOUGH
LATEST CAMS KEEP ACTIVITY SCATTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS INTO
SOUTHWEST MO. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY, WITH A
FEW INSTANCES OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION SOUTHEASTWARD OF A MCS. THE LATEST
TRENDS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
AND TRACK WEST OF THE AREA INTO OK. THERE IS STILL A FEW CAMS
THAT WANT TO DROP THE MCS THROUGH OUR AREA, THOUGH THESE ARE
BECOMING OUTLIERS FOR THE TIME BEING. THE GENERAL THOUGHT
PROCESS IS THAT ANY DEVELOPED/MATURE MCS DIVING SOUTHEAST WITH
THE CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD FOLLOW THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THIS
GRADIENT APPEARS TO BEING SETTING UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA.
DESPITE THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY, SPC HAS MAINTAINED A
MARGINAL (1 OF 5) SEVERE RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN THE
LOW CHANCE FOR A MCS TO GLANCE THE AREA. MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL
HELP IDENTIFY HOW THE OVERNIGHT MCS PLAYS OUT TONIGHT. IF THE
COMPLEX GETS INTO THE AREA, THE PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES THIS AFTERNOON.
TO PUT IT SIMPLY, THIS SEVERE IS CONDITIONAL AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW.
WEDNESDAY:
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVERSPREAD
THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS CAN BE GLEANED BY
PWATS OF 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES, SUPPORTING RAINFALL RATES UPWARDS OF
1 TO 2+ INCHES PER A HOUR. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT (2 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ON WEDNESDAY. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE AREAS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEKEND, WITH ELEVATED STREAMFLOWS AND
SATURATED SOILS IN PLACE. MEANWHILE, SPC HIGHLIGHTS ANOTHER
MARGINAL (1 OF 5) RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND
CONDITIONAL ON DESTABILIZATION. THIS PATTERN PERSISTS BEYOND
WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THIS WEEK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS ADDITIONAL HIGH COVERAGE RAIN CHANCES
(60-90%) ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL REMAINING
UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT TRACK OF EACH SHORTWAVE, AND THUS WHERE
THE CORRIDORS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL ALIGN. THIS WILL BE BEST
CAPTURED IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. ONCE AGAIN, HIGH PWATS IN
PLACE WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. WPC CAPTURES THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
WITH SLIGHT (2 OF 4) RISK ON THURSDAY AND MARGINAL (1 OF 4) RISK
ON FRIDAY. AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN POTENTIAL CORRIDORS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL, A FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED. THE
LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK:
CLUSTER ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A PATTERN CHANCE TO UNFOLD INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND, FEATURING A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS WOULD BRING THE AREA OUR FIRST TASTE OF SUMMER, WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. WPC AND
CPC OUTLOOKS HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT AS EARLY
AS THIS WEEKEND, AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY BE A
WELCOMED CHANGE AFTER A VERY ACTIVE JUNE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
A STRATUS DECK WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUES TO ERODE HOWEVER IT
WILL LIKELY LINGER AT BBG THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A LOW
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING
TO TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST HOWEVER SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
10KTS. MVFR CEILINGS COULD RETURN TO JLN AND BBG IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS LOW.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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