384
FXUS63 KSGF 232339
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
639 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN MO, THEN AGAIN TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL.
- MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) TO SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS.
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING RISK WILL
ACCOMPANY EACH ROUND. A SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CAPTURE THIS POTENTIAL TONIGHT,
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND
WEAKER CAP IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS OKLAHOMA WITH
INSTABILITY WEAKENING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. STILL
SOME WEAK UNCAPPED INSTABILITY IS SPREADING INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL REMAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOUR, BUT WILL WEAKEN
COMPLETELY THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING, GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54 AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 65 BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN BY
LATE THIS EVENING AND THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE THEN. THE
SEVERE RISK IS LOW AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE WEAKER ACROSS
THE AREA, BUT A STRONG STORM COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE IN STORMS WILL
START TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA, SO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MUCAPE WILL START TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE CAP WEAKENS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AS
THE CAP WEAKENS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD START TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE TO START, BUT
IT IS POSSIBLE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA IF THE COLD POOLS FROM THE STORMS CAN
CONGEAL LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS,
THERE WOULD BE A LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK WHERE THIS BAND
DEVELOPS AND TRAINING OF STORMS OCCUR. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
THE MAIN RISK.
INSTABILITY THEN WEAKENS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A FEW SHOWERS AND
RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INSTABILITY WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, IT IS POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE AND A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS
KANSAS AND MOVE EAST INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY,
GENERALLY LATE MORNING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE SPC
HAS A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 5) TO SLIGHT (2 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN RISK BUT SOME SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. THE EXACT TRACK OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON WHERE THEY DEVELOP, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA, BUT THE LINE COULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH
OF SOUTH. WHERE THE LINE IS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL BE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BEHIND THE STORMS AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT, LEADING TO A FLOODING RISK WHERE TRAINING OF
STORMS AND DEVELOP AND OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS
TRAINING WILL BE BANNED IN NATURE SHOULD COULD BE MORE LOCALIZED
THAN WIDESPREAD, AND WHERE THIS SETS UP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
EXACTLY WHERE STORMS DEVELOP ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS ARE THEN SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEKEND AND REMAINING OVER
THE REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
OVERALL A DRIER PATTERN BUT THERE COULD STILL BE DAILY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING PEAK HEATING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. ONGOING RAIN OVER JLN COULD LAST A FEW MORE HOURS
WITH RAIN STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT TO SGF AND BBG. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD REDEVELOP AT ANYTIME
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS FOR
NOW. AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY.
CEILINGS SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY COME DOWN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF IFR CEILINGS
AROUND SUNRISE. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO FORM, ESPECIALLY AT BBG.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10KTS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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