133
FXUS63 KSGF 241115
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
615 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF HIGHWAY 65. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60MPH.
- MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) TO SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS, WITH A LOWER RISK OF A
TORNADO OR TWO.
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING RISK WILL
ACCOMPANY EACH ROUND. A SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CAPTURE THIS POTENTIAL INTO
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER PARTS
OF AZ/NM/TX, WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OBSERVATIONS SHOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA IN THE UPPER 90% TO EVEN 100% RANGE. WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL
FROM YESTERDAY'S COMPLEX LEADING TO SATURATED SOILS OVER SOUTHEAST
KS/SOUTHWEST MO, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY AREAS OF FOG, WITH
OBSERVATIONS DEPICTING LOWERED VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2-5 MILES
(WITH VERY LOCALIZED AREAS OCCASIONALLY DOWN TO 0.25 MILES) IN
THAT GENERAL AREA. THE CONTINUED THOUGHT IS THAT THIS SHOULDN'T
GET WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY,
BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
SO SEE IF ONE ENDS UP BEING NEEDED.
THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT PUSHED THROUGH SOUTHEAST
KS/SOUTHWEST MO EARLIER YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ENDED UP
WORKING OVER THE ATMOSPHERE, LEADING TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY BEING
PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONALLY, THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT THAT LED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY
OVER THE PLAINS WAS REALIZED FURTHER WEST THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED. AS A RESULT, THAT COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS, HOWEVER IT SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN
OUT OF OUR CWA AS IT MOVES THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE MO/AR BORDER CAN
BE SEEN ON RADAR, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST
TRENDS HOWEVER SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY THIS MORNING.
AS THE DAY CONTINUES, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CWA. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE,
HOWEVER AN ISOLATED STORM COULD GET STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60MPH. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MO.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING ACTIVE WEATHER AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. AS STORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP IN
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, GUIDANCE SHOWS THEM
PUSHING EAST INTO THE OZARKS DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. THERE
REMAINS A QUESTION OF STORM MODE ONCE THEY REACH THE AREA, AS
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER WEST, WITH MORE OF A LINE
SEGMENT/CLUSTER POSSIBILITY AS IT APPROACHES FAR SOUTHEAST
KS/SOUTHWEST MO. ADDITIONALLY, THE EXACT TRACK OF THESE STORMS
IS ALSO STILL A QUESTION, AS THAT WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE
EXACTLY THEY DEVELOP. REGARDLESS, THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, WITH A TORNADO OR TWO AS A
LESSER, SECONDARY HAZARD. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HIGHLIGHTS
AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF
SEVERE WEATHER, WITH A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE REMAINING CWA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THESE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY,
BRINGING A FLOODING RISK TO THE AREA. HIGH PWATS WILL ONCE AGAIN
SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES, AND ANY TRAINING
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LEAD TO A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS LIES IN THE LOCATION OF THE
HIGHEST FLOODING THREAT, AS THESE STORMS WILL BE MORE BANDED IN
NATURE. SIMILAR TO THE SEVERE THREAT, THE HIGHEST RAINFALL (AND
HENCE FLOODING THREAT) WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE STORMS DEVELOP
ON THURSDAY AND WHERE THE BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS SETS UP. WPC
HIGHLIGHTED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FLOODING POTENTIAL.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK,
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS RISE, WITH THE NBM INTERQUARTILE SPREAD SHOWING THE
25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
IFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS PATCHY
FOG AND LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR. THIS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY ~15Z, WITH VFR RETURNING BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR -SHRA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE (20-50%). WENT WITH THE PROB30 GROUP DUE TO THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND IF THEY'LL AFFECT THE TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE, SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10KTS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...MELTO
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