917
FXUS63 KSGF 241826
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
126 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF HIGHWAY 65. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60MPH.
- MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) TO SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS, WITH A LOWER RISK OF A
TORNADO OR TWO.
- FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 60 FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM FRIDAY. BANDS OF 2 TO
4" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 6" WITHIN THESE HEAVY BANDS.
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60MPH.
- HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE 90S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WEAKENS TO THE EAST WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND
WEAKER CAP IN PLACE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN IN COVERAGE AND DECREASE AS IT TRACKS EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE BETTER LIGHTNING POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS
THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER BUT SOME SCATTERED LIGHTNING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE BORDER. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OUT EAST. SCATTERED SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 INTO
THIS EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE STORMS ARE MOVING SLOW, SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD OVERALL DISSIPATE BY THE MID EVENING
HOURS, BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE CAP INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA AND LIFT WILL BE WEAKER BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES.
A WAVE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE CAP WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVES WHICH WILL ALLOW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP AT TIMES FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS AND A FRONT SETS UP
FROM KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SO TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT
WILL SETUP, OVERALL THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH THIS TODAY'S 12Z ROUNDS HOWEVER, WITH STORMS IT IS
POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS PUSH THE FRONT SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN
WHAT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING, WILL HAVE TO SEE EXACTLY WHERE THE
FRONT SETS UP. THE HREF LPMM ARE SHOWING THE BANDING POTENTIAL
WITH 2-4" OF RAIN WITHIN THE BANDS WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
UP TO 6" WHERE THE TRAINING CAN OCCUR THE LONGEST. ON THE LOW-
SIDE, THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS WITH 0.25 TO 1"
OVERALL. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 7
AM FRIDAY GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60.
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN RISK WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS TO 60 MPH AND THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING.
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS, WILL
WEAKEN SOME OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT ENOUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR STORMS TO OCCUR AT TIMES. SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT WILL START TO INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. WITH ROUNDS OF STORMS, A SURFACE CAP MAY
DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE INCREASING SHEAR. MUCAPE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE SO STORMS WILL CONTINUE BUT IF THEY ARE MORE ELEVATED
THAT WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL. IF STORMS CAN REMAIN
SURFACE BASED AND LINE SEGMENTS CAN SURGE TO THE EAST, THERE
COULD BE A LOW CONDITIONAL TORNADO RISK ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
SHOWER AND STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
MCS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME GUSTY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
RAIN WILL START TO TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS A DYING MCS
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT TO
THE EAST WITH IT AS WELL AND LEAVES US WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. LONG-TERM MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 100S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S. LOOKING AT THE HEATRISK PRODUCT, MOST
OF THE STATE IS AT MAJOR (3/4) RISK LEVEL FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY
WITH A SMALL AREA OF EXTREME (4/4) RISK NEAR LAKE OF THE OZARKS.
THIS MEANS THAT THE HEAT WILL AFFECT ANYONE WITHOUT PROPER
COOLING/HYDRATION OR ANY OF THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT
ESPECIALLY WITH NO RELIEF OVERNIGHT. PLEASE KEEP THESE HEAT
RISKS IN MIND ESPECIALLY AS WE GO INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
HEAT IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY
AND WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (20-40%) FOR EXTREME HEAT FROM
JULY 1-7TH FOR MOST OF THE STATE. DURING EXTREME TEMPERATURES,
LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITY, STAY HYDRATED, AND ENSURE ACCESS TO AIR
CONDITIONING/COOLING AREAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON,
AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN, AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
WITH TIME. THE KJLN TAF SITE WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED THE
ACTIVITY COULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE WHEN THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO THE KSGF AND KBBG SITES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MAY START TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH BANDS CONTINUING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ073-097-101.
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>092-094.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...WISE
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