666
FXUS63 KSGF 251743
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1243 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN
ONE MILE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60.
- MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) TO SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS, WITH A LOWER-END RISK OF A TORNADO OR
TWO, PRIMARILY WEST OF I-49.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM
FRIDAY. BANDS OF 2 TO 4" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 6"
WITHIN THESE HEAVY BANDS.
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60MPH.
- HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE 90S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS AND CURRENT CONDITIONS:
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA/NORTHERN
ARKANSAS YESTERDAY EVENING BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
HAS MOVED FURTHER SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CURRENTLY SITS TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/TX/AZ/NM, WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE, A SURFACE LOW RESIDES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DIPPING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW THROUGH
NORTHERN MO AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE CAUGHT IN ZONAL
FLOW AND WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH LATER TODAY (MORE ON THIS LATER). ALL OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT SWEPT THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HAS SINCE MOVED OUT,
LEADING TO A MUCH WELCOMED QUIET NIGHT. OBSERVATIONS SHOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WITH SOME
AREAS STILL HOLDING ON TO THE LOWER 70S AS OF 2AM.
FOGGY THIS MORNING:
AROUND MIDNIGHT, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MANY LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING CLEAR SKIES, WITH OBSERVATIONS INDICATING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER 90% TO 100% RANGE OVER SATURATED SOILS.
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY DEPICTS POCKETS OF LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOPING IN LOCALIZED AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60, WITH
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SOME LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ALREADY
DROPPING BELOW A MILE IN VISIBILITY. HREF GUIDANCES SUGGESTS
MEAN VISIBILITIES OF 3-5 MILES SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY, WITH A
40-70% CHANCE OF VISIBILITIES <0.5 MILES AND A 40-60% CHANCE
<0.25 MILES. ALL THAT TO SAY, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE'S A BETTER
CHANCE OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING (COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
MORNING). DECIDED AGAINST A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW, AS THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR VISIBILITIES <0.25 MILES (DFA CRITERIA) LOOKS
MORE LOCALIZED IN NATURE, BUT WILL CONTINUE MONITORING
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS TO SEE IF ONE IS WARRANTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING CHANCES LATER TODAY:
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH OK/KS AND TOWARDS THE OZARKS DURING THE MORNING HOURS,
WITH HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN MCS ACCOMPANYING IT AND
REACHING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THIS COMPLEX, ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, LINGERING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT.
OVERALL, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS PRETTY MESSY, AND IT REMAINS A QUESTION
OF WHICH ROUND WILL BRING THE HIGHER SEVERE THREAT. REMEMBERING THE
SYSTEM THAT WENT THROUGH LAST SUNDAY, WE HAD A MORNING MCS THAT
PUSHED THROUGH, WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE COMPLEX. THE ORIGINAL THOUGHT WITH THAT SYSTEM WAS THAT
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WOULD BRING THE HIGHER SEVERE
POTENTIAL, WHEN IN REALITY IT WAS THE OTHER WAY AROUND. THE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TODAY HAS A SIMILAR FEEL, SO IT'LL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
HOW THE MCS IN THE FIRST ROUND INFLUENCES THE ATMOSPHERE BEFORE THE
SECOND ROUND OCCURS.
SEVERE HAZARDS AND UNCERTAINTY:
THE MAIN QUESTIONS TODAY WILL BE 1)WHICH ROUND BRINGS THE GREATER
SEVERE RISK? AND 2)WHAT STORM MODE IS THE MOST LIKELY OPTION? WITH
THE INITIAL MCS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING TIME,
MODELS SUGGEST MUCAPE UP TO 2000-2500 J/KG, LEADING TO AMPLE
DESTABILIZATION. SHEAR LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WEEK THOUGH, GENERALLY
AROUND 15-25KTS, SO THE MCS COULD TAKE ON MORE OF A
MULTICELLULAR/CLUSTER MODE RATHER THAN A TRUE LINE-SEGMENT. IF THIS
COMES TO FRUITION, THEN THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD LEAN MORE TOWARDS
THE SECOND ROUND. IF SHEAR CAN INCREASE FURTHER THOUGH, THEN THIS
MCS COULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE RISK. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THE
PREVIOUS THOUGHT, WITH THE SECOND ROUND BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE
RISK.
BEHIND THIS COMPLEX, WINDS BECOME EASTERLY AS THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST, AIDING IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
KS/OK WHERE THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT MEET.
ADDITIONALLY, A 30-40KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP OVER THE KS/OK BORDER,
NUDGING NORTHEAST INTO MISSOURI DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WITH 30-50KT BULK SHEAR AND MUCAPE UP TO 2500 J/KG, ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS MIXED WITH CLUSTERS OF STORMS LOOK TO BE THE DEVELOPING
STORM MODES TO OUR WEST, PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RIGHT NOW, CAMS
SUGGEST THESE SUPERCELLS BECOMING MORE OF A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THEY APPROACH OUR WESTERN CWA. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. IF THE SUPERCELLS CAN HOLD THEIR
STRUCTURE LONG ENOUGH TO REACH OUR AREA, THEN TORNADOES WOULD ALSO
BE A PROBABLE HAZARD FOR AREAS PRIMARILY WEST OF I-49.
THERE IS A SCENARIO IN WHICH THE EARLY AFTERNOON MCS WIPES OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO LESS OF A SEVERE THREAT, AND THE
FOCUS SHIFTING PRIMARILY TO THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED, THIS SYSTEM IS VERY MESSY, SO THERE'S A LOT OF
CONDITIONAL SCENARIOS AND UNCERTAINTIES STILL INVOLVED. CURRENT
THINKING HAS THIS SCENARIO AS THE LEAST LIKELY OPTION HOWEVER, WITH
THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO BEING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE SECOND
ROUND. FIGURED THIS SCENARIO SHOULD AT LEAST BE MENTIONED THOUGH.
FLOODING POTENTIAL:
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THAT'S PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA, BRINGING LIKELY CHANCES FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSH THROUGH. HREF 24-HOUR
LPMM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WIDE BAND OF 2-4", WITH LOCALIZED AREAS
RECEIVING UP TO 6". OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER BAND OF RAINFALL,
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 0.5-1.0" CAN BE EXPECTED. STRAYED AWAY
FROM THE NBM FOR THE QPF AS IT CONTINUED TO PUSH THE AXIS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL FURTHER NORTH THAN ANY OTHER GUIDANCE, LIKELY
INFLUENCED BY MORE NORTHERLY OUTLIERS. WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED
THE FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA, WHICH GOES INTO
EFFECT AT 1PM THIS AFTERNOON. IT'S CURRENTLY SET TO EXPIRE AT
7AM FRIDAY, HOWEVER WE'LL NEED TO ASSESS IF A FUTURE EXTENSION
IS NEEDED, AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY:
FRIDAY WILL BEGIN WITH THE LINGERING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE MORNING BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS TO OUR EAST. DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOWEVER,
DESTABILIZATION LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING (MUCAPE UP TO
1500-2500 J/KG), LEADING TO ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SHEAR
REMAINS WEAKER, GENERALLY BETWEEN 20-30KTS, SO THESE SHOULD TAKE ON
MORE OF A MULTICELLULAR MODE AS THEY PUSH THROUGH, WITH DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 60MPH AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, WE'LL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WHERE THESE
STORMS DEVELOP AND TRACK, AS ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WOULD EXTEND
THE FLOODING RISK INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
A MUCH DESIRED PATTERN CHANGE IS LIKELY ONCE WE GET FURTHER INTO THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA. AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE HEADING INTO THE END OF
JUNE AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF JULY, EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME A MAJOR CONCERN. WPC HIGHLIGHTS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS (INCLUDING OUR FORECAST AREA) TO EXPERIENCE HAZARDOUS
HEAT BETWEEN THE JUNE 27-JULY 1 TIMEFRAME (WPC DAY 3-7 HAZARDS),
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY
(WPC DAY 8-14 HAZARD OUTLOOK). LOOKING AT THE NBM INTERQUARTILE
SPREAD, THERE'S HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE IN THE LOW 90S FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK, AS THERE'S ONLY A 3-4 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE
25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES. ADDITIONALLY, MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO THE LOW 100S, LEADING TO
MUCH OF THE STATE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE MAJOR HEAT RISK (LEVEL
3 OF 4 IN THE NWS HEATRISK PRODUCT), WITH POCKETS OF EXTREME
RISK (4 OF 4) DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. WE'LL
NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING HOW THINGS SET UP TO DETERMINE IF
ANY FUTURE HEAT ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED, BUT REGARDLESS, IT'LL BE
HOT NEXT WEEK HEADING INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, DURING EXTREME
TEMPERATURES, LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITY, STAY HYDRATED, AND ENSURE
ACCESS TO AIR CONDITIONING/COOLING AREAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
VFR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE
SCATTERED. SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING 60 MPH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING AND SIT OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN COULD DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR
AT TIMES. BREAK IN THE RAIN RETURNS FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
AFTERNOON CONVECTION RETURNS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
STRONGEST ON FRIDAY MORNING GUSTING NEAR 20 KTS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...SORIA
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