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FXUS63 KSGF 261710
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1210 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) TO SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH
WILL BE THE MAIN RISK.
- SLIGHT (2 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.
- HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE 90S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE AREA TO EXPERIENCE ZONAL
FLOW, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT THE SURFACE, A
SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS, WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MO. AS THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS PROGRESS, THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA, WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE DUAL-POL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES
FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS (WHICH SEEMS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS
FAIRLY WELL), SO FAR THE AREA HAS RECEIVED WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF
0.25-1.5", WITH BANDS OF HIGHER RAINFALL. PORTIONS OF CRAWFORD
AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES SAW 3.0-4.5", WITH NORTHERN GREENE COUNTY
RECEIVING 2-5" (LOCALIZED AREAS JUST ABOVE 5" NEAR ASH GROVE).
CURRENT RADAR AS OF 1 AM SHOWS REMNANT POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-44. THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN PRETTY WORKED OVER IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL, LEADING TO MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG LOWERING THE
RAINFALL RATES FOR THE STRATIFORM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
IN FROM CENTRAL KS AND WEST-CENTRAL MO. CURRENTLY SEEING RAINFALL
RATES OF 0.5-1.0" PER HOUR WITH THAT ACTIVITY. TOWARDS SOUTHEAST KS,
MORE ELEVATED STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWA
INTO AN AREA WITH BETTER INSTABILITY (THIS AREA RECEIVED LESS
RAINFALL EARLIER, SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS LESS WORKED-OVER). CAMS SHOW
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.
STORMS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON:
THE PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM YESTERDAY EVENING AND THIS
MORNING WILL AID IN SPARKING REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY, A 25-35KT LLJ WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA, WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S PROVIDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT, AS WELL
AS 1250-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE. SHEAR LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 20-30KTS, SO DEVELOPING STORMS SHOULD BE
MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE (AS OPPOSED TO SUPERCELLULAR OR A MORE
ORGANIZED LINE). CURRENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, GENERALLY ALONG I-44 BEFORE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST. DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT, HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED, THEN A
LOWER-END RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO COULDN'T BE FULLY RULED OUT.
WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND
THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY (1-2 INCHES, WITH
LOCALIZED UP TO 3-4 INCHES), THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 7PM THIS EVENING.
SATURDAY:
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY REMAINS A QUESTION AS MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE WITH A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. REMNANT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS,
BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST AND OUT OF
THE AREA. A WEAK MCV PUSHING IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS COULD SPARK
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING A VERY CONDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO TO DEVELOP. IF THIS CAN OCCUR, ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO IS EXTREMELY LOW AT THIS POINT. WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR
HOW THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS UNDERNEATH. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE
UPPER LEVEL JET AND STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, THEREFORE NO WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCE ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
WILL BE OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A FEW
AFTERNOON/EVENING PULSE TYPE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. LATE WEEK
THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO PUSH EAST SOME LATE NEXT WEEK. THE
ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS DO DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAR EAST THE HIGH
MOVES EAST AS SOME KEEP IT OVER THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. IF
THE RIDGE CAN PUSH FURTHER EAST, PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD GET
IN NORTHWEST FLOW, BRINGING SOME RAIN CHANCES, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IN THIS IS LOW AS SEVERAL MEMBERS KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
OVER THE AREA. SOME PULSE TYPE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE
WEEK IF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
AREA.
A WARMER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S C. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS INTO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY, WITH SOME MIDDLE 90S
POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES
OVER THE REGION. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 TO 105 DEGREES NEXT WEEK. THE HEAT RISKS FOR HEAT-RELATED
IMPACTS FOR THE AREA BASED ON THE FORECASTED HIGHS SHOW THE
AREA REACHING THE MODERATE TO MAJOR CATEGORY NEXT WEEK. THE NBM
TEMPERATURE RANGE BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS IS LOW NEXT
WEEK WITH A FIVE DEGREE SPREAD FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE MIDDLE
90S NEXT WEEK, WHICH LEADS TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN HOTTER
CONDITIONS AND A DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED STORMS WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1 SM
OR LESS. A RISK OF STORMS WILL LINGER NEAR THE MO/AR BORDER
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS LOWER.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DIDIO
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