410
FXUS63 KSGF 270446
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MODERATE (LEVEL 3 OF 4) RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7
AM SATURDAY MORNING.
- HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE OVERVIEW:
SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND A COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION, LIKELY ACTING TO DELAY
OR LESSEN TODAY'S DESTABILIZATION, BUT A FEW PEAKS ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL MISSOURI ARE MORE APPARENT. MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
FAIRLY WEAK, THOUGH A BELT OF MODERATELY ENHANCED 850 MB FLOW IS
NUDGING INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
SLIGHT SEVERE RISK THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT:
SCATTERED STORMS WILL INITIATE IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF TRANSIENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES. THERE WAS A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH THE CLOUD COVER WILL
AFFECT DESTABILIZATION, BUT A SPECIAL 18Z BALLOON LAUNCH
SUGGESTS AMPLE DESTABILIZATION WITH MINIMAL SURFACE INHIBITION.
WITH SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FORECAST 0-3 KM THETA-E DIFFERENCES ARE FORECAST TO BE
MARGINAL (25-30 DEG), SO WHILE MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SUB- SEVERE A FEW GUSTS OF 60 MPH MAY BE OBSERVED GIVEN THE
NOTABLE LACK OF CIN. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL MISSOURI, BUT SHOULD THEY OCCUR, A SECONDARY RISK
FOR HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN THESE SECONDARY HAZARDS
OCCURING IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
OUTLINED MOST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK.
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT:
MODEL PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE HIGH (1.9" TO 2.2") WITH
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. RESULTING RAIN RATES WITHIN THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE QUITE HIGH AS A RESULT, WITH HOURLY
RATES OF 1.5 TO 2.5"/HR. BOTH OF THE 12Z RUNS FROM HREF AND REFS
LPMM DATA DEPICT TWO DISTINCT POCKETS OF HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS:
ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS DUE TO TRAINING CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND ANOTHER ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ALONG A
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY WITH MCV POTENTIAL. FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS
ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP
TO 5 INCHES AS A REASONABLE HIGH-END SCENARIO. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THE HIGH-END POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED AN AREA ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A
PITTSBURG, KS TO ROLLA LINE IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL, WITH A SLIGHT RISK EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT, THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
AREAWIDE UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY. IT'S POSSIBLE LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE WATCH BEFORE THEN AS
THEIR RISK ENDS EARLIER.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
STORMS LINGER INTO SATURDAY:
HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS REMNANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN
MCV MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI WHERE A MARGINAL WIND
AND HAIL RISK MAY BECOME APPARENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST
OF HIGHWAY 65 AND INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY WEATHER FINALLY RETURNS NEXT WEEK:
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES SHOW STRONG AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A PROMINENT
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY AND KEEPING A FAIRLY
STAGNANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVERALL. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
MODERATELY HIGH, SO A FEW LOW-END RAIN CHANCES CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT IF SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OR WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME MOVES THROUGH, BUT THESE WILL BE THE EXCEPTION
RATHER THAN THE RULE.
NBM PERCENTILE DATA SHOW UNUSUALLY SMALL INTERQUARTILE SPREADS
(2-4 DEGREES) THROUGH NEXT WEEK, INDICATING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WILL BE
COMMON, WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 100S. THIS MAY OPEN
THE DOOR TO POSSIBLE HEAT HEADLINES IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR EARLY MORNING SATURDAY AS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ATTEMPT TO MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE TAF SITES HOWEVER IT
REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW FAR EAST THE STORMS GET. AMENDMENTS ARE
LIKELY IF STORMS DO NOT MAKE IT INTO THE SITES. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE STORMS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DRY OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW
NIGHT HOWEVER MAGNITUDES CURRENTLY LOOK TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH A SWITCH TO THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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