329
FXUS63 KSGF 271608
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1108 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MODERATE (LEVEL 3 OF 4) RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCH TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE.
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH IS THE MAIN SEVERE HAZARD.
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS DAILY HEAT
INDICES CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. LITTLE NIGHT TIME RELIEF
WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE REGION IN A ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING THE AREA. THIS ENERGY
CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AND A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA. THE 00Z KSGF SOUNDING MEASURED A
VERY HIGH PW VALUE OF 2.00 INCHES ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL
INSTABILITY. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A BATCH OF MODERATE
RAIN WAS STRETCHING INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY: THERE ARE LIKELY A FEW
DIFFERENT MCVS (MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX) ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THESE CLUSTERS AND MCVS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO AID IN ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL, FLOODING WILL
BE A CONCERN AS HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OCCUR. WHILE THE FLOOD
WATCH EXPIRES AT 7AM, SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, WE WILL NEED
TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO WHERE THOSE MCVS ARE LOCATED. ANY
LOCATIONS NEAR OR EAST OF THE MCVS WILL EXPERIENCE RENEWED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH HEATING,
MORE ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS COULD DEVELOP. HEAVY PRECIP LOADING
COULD CREATE SOME LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60MPH
IN THE STRONGER STORMS. LATEST HREF PAINTBALL PLOTS SUGGEST THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S, LOCATIONS WEST OF SPRINGFIELD
WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH UPPER 80S EXPECTED IF SKIES CLEAR OUT
FAST ENOUGH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
HEAT ADVISORY SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A PATTERN CHANGE
COMMENCES SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK AS A 594DM MID LEVEL HIGH
BUILDS IN JUST EAST OF THE AREA. THIS ESSENTIALLY WILL SHUT DOWN
PRECIP CHANCES AS MUCH WARMER AIR BUILDS IN ALOFT. MEAN 850MB
TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 21-24C RANGE. COMPARING THIS TO
CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY STUDIES SUGGEST A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. THE GREEN VEGETATION WILL LIKELY KEEP US
FROM REACHING HIGHER LEVELS. HOWEVER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 70S. THIS WILL CREATE DAILY HEAT INDICIES
AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH SOME LOCATIONS COMING CLOSE TO 105
DEGREES, ESPECIALLY AS WE GET CLOSER TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NOT MUCH RELIEF IS EXPECTED AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. GIVEN
THAT THIS IS THE FIRST PROLONGED HEAT OF THE SUMMER, WE WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HEAT RISK TOOL HAS THE AREA REACHING THE MAJOR
CATEGORY FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA WHICH GENERALLY EQUATES TO
HEAT RELATED IMPACTS AFFECTING ANYONE WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION
AS WELL AS HEALTH SYSTEMS AND INDUSTRIES. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PAST THURSDAY HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE
OUT EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY FURTHER IN TIME.
PRECIP CHANCES: OVERALL CHANCES REMAIN LOW GIVEN THE WARM AIR
ALOFT HOWEVER WE MAY SEE SOME LOW CHANCES MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH PERHAPS SOME AFTERNOON PULSE STORM POTENTIAL AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THESE
PRECIP CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CLOUD COVER IS HIDING SOME VERY LOCALIZED POCKETS OF
MVFR CEILINGS, BUT MOST OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST VFR CONDITIONS ARE
PREVAILING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO ANY LIGHTNING
MENTION WAS RELEGATED TO A PROB30 GROUP.
A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL NUDGE INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AFTER DARK. FORECAST LLWS APPEARS MARGINAL FOR MENTION IN THE
TAF ITSELF, AND GIVEN THE OCCURRENCE WOULD BE BEYOND 6 HOURS, NO
MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAFS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ073-
097-101.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...DIDIO
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