455
FXUS63 KSGF 271753
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1253 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW-CONFIDENCE
RISK OF AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST PRODUCING WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS DAILY HEAT
INDICES CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. LITTLE NIGHT TIME RELIEF
WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
- AN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAT NEXT WEEK
WITH ONLY LOW-END RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE OVERVIEW:
A ZONAL PATTERN EXISTS ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI, CONNECTING WESTWARD TO
A SURFACE LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS. BROKEN CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED
FOR LOCALIZED PEAKS OF SOLAR INSOLATION AMIDST STILL-ELEVATED
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AREAWIDE. A COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY LARGE MCV IS
PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON; A SECONDARY (WEAK) MCV COMING OUT OF SOUTHEAST
KANSAS HAS STRUGGLED AS IT'S MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI,
BARELY APPARENT ON RADAR OR SATELLITE IMAGERY ANYMORE.
ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING:
THERE WILL BE TWO POTENTIAL IMPETUSES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST IS THE AFOREMENTIONED
DECAYING MCV ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THAT MAY ACT TO
REINVIGORATE A FEW UPDRAFTS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS GIVEN STILL-SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT WILL ACT TO KEEP COVERAGE FAIRLY
ISOLATED, HOWEVER. THE SECOND CHANCE WILL EMERGE ALONG THE
NORTHERN CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING.
INDEED, SOME CAMS DO WANT TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. IF UPDRAFTS CAN GET TALL ENOUGH, A MARGINAL
RISK FOR DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH MAY BECOME APPARENT.
CONFIDENCE IN BOTH SCENARIOS IS CURRENTLY LOW, HOWEVER, AS FORCING
IS WEAK. RAIN CHANCES ARE THEIR RELATIVE HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND THE EASTERN OZARKS, WHERE THEY'RE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 30 TO 40%.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE DEFINED BY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH FEW PRECIPITATION CHANCES. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE STRONG AGREEMENT IN BUILDING AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND LOCKING US INTO THAT
PATTERN FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK. NBM PERCENTILE DATA
SHOW UNUSUALLY SMALL INTERQUARTILE SPREADS (2-4 DEGREES) THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, INDICATING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WILL BE COMMON, WITH DAILY
HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 100S. FURTHERMORE, OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT AREAWIDE SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A MINIMUM
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH A HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE, THE
POSSIBILITY OF PULSE CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CLOUD COVER IS HIDING SOME VERY LOCALIZED POCKETS OF
MVFR CEILINGS, BUT MOST OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST VFR CONDITIONS ARE
PREVAILING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO ANY LIGHTNING
MENTION WAS RELEGATED TO A PROB30 GROUP.
A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL NUDGE INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AFTER DARK. FORECAST LLWS APPEARS MARGINAL FOR MENTION IN THE
TAF ITSELF, AND GIVEN THE OCCURRENCE WOULD BE BEYOND 6 HOURS, NO
MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAFS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ073-
097-101.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...DIDIO
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