423
FXUS63 KSGF 281033
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
533 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AS DAILY HEAT
INDICES CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. LITTLE NIGHT TIME RELIEF
WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
- AN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAT THIS WEEK
WITH ONLY LOW-END RAIN CHANCES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
US WITH A TROUGH OUT WEST. 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS
OCCURRING WHICH WILL PLACE A LID ON RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS INCREASE SURFACE TEMPS. A SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES HAS CREATED A PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH STEADY SOUTH WINDS OCCURRING. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR
HOWEVER IT REMAINS VERY WARM AND MUGGY WITH TEMPS AND DEWS BOTH
IN THE 70S.
HOT AND HUMID: THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER
THE AREA AND POINTS EAST TODAY AND MONDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HEATING AND GIVEN THE WARM START AND MEAN
850MB TEMPS AROUND 22-23C, HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. GIVEN THE MOIST SOILS/VEGETATION,
SURFACE DEWS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY AT LEAST IN THE 70-75 DEGREE
RANGE, EVEN WITH DAY TIME MIXING. THIS WILL CREATE HEAT INDICIES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S TODAY AND MONDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
HOT AND HUMID/HEAT ADVISORY: ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE RIDGE MAY TRY TO
RETROGRADE WEST SOME BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEREFORE THE HEAT
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THOSE DAYS IN LATER
UPDATES. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR TEMPS NOT TO WARM EVEN
HIGHER IS THE GREEN VEGETATION FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS AND
EVEN WARMER AIR ALOFT DISPLACED WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER WE
WILL LIKELY SEE DEWS IN THE 70S THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
HEAT INDICIES AROUND 100 DEGREES. THE NWS HEAT RISK TOOL HAS
THE ENTIRE AREA REACHING THE MAJOR CATEGORY THROUGH THIS WEEK
WHICH GENERALLY EQUATES TO HEAT RELATED IMPACTS AFFECTING ANYONE
WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION AS WELL AS HEALTH SYSTEMS AND
INDUSTRIES. THIS WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EXCESSIVE HEAT
HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
LOW RAIN CHANCES: THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE SIGNS OF AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE OF PULSE/ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIP IS STILL LOW.
IF MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CAN REDUCE FURTHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK
THEN CHANCES MAY INCREASE HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES CURRENTLY REMAIN
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH JUST PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY WITH INCREASING SPEEDS AND GUSTS TODAY. SURFACE WIND
GUSTS COULD REACH 30 MPH AT JLN. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY
THROUGH 14Z AND AGAIN TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT SGF AND JLN.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ073-
097-101.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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