729
FXUS63 KSGF 282316
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
616 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AS DAILY HEAT INDICES
CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. LITTLE NIGHTTIME RELIEF WITH
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
- AN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAT THIS WEEK
WITH ONLY LOW-END RAIN CHANCES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLINES THE AREA IN A MODERATE
RISK (40-60% CHANCE) FOR THE EXCESSIVE HEAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
TO CELEBRATE THE HOLIDAY SHOULD MAKE EFFORTS TO HAVE COOLING
AND HYDRATION OPTIONS READILY AVAILABLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MUCH-ANTICIPATED RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME FAIR-
WEATHER CUMULUS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MISSOURI. AT THE
SURFACE, A LEE-LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS IS CONTRIBUTING TO A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI.
WARM AND BREEZY TODAY:
SOLAR INSOLATION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY. WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S, HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
EXCEED THE 100 DEGREE MARK. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
AREAWIDE TODAY.
THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST KANSAS COUNTIES AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI,
WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
HOT, HUMID, AND DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK:
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE STRONG AGREEMENT IN
LOCKING US INTO A STAGNANT UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
A PROMINENT RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS HOT, HUMID, AND MOSTLY PRECIPITATION-FREE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. NBM 25TH-75TH
PERCENTILE TEMPERATURE SPREADS REMAIN UNUSUALLY SMALL (2-3
DEGREES) THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK, INDICATING HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. WHILE NAEFS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
TABLES AND THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX DO NOT SUGGEST
RECORD- BREAKING HEAT IS LIKELY, DAILY HEAT INDICES AROUND 100
DEGREES WILL BRING ABOUT PROLONGED HOT CONDITIONS, AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 70S ALONG WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. THESE NUMBERS, COUPLED WITH
THE FACT THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE THE FIRST PROLONGED HEAT OF THE
YEAR, HAVE WARRANTED THE CONTINUATION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. IN FACT, THE NWS HEATRISK PRODUCT--
WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR BOTH THE DURATION OF THE HEAT AND NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES-- INDICATES AN INCREASING AREAL EXTENT OF THE MAJOR
RISK CATEGORY (LEVEL 3 OF 4) THROUGH THE WEEK. LIKEWISE,
FORECAST WET BULB GLOBE TEMPERATURE (WBGT)--WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR
HEAT STRESS FOR ACTIVE INDIVIDUALS OUT IN THE SUN-- ALSO SEES AN
UPTICK THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
FURTHERMORE, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S EXTENDED HAZARDS
OUTLOOK OUTLINES THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MODERATE RISK (40-60%
CHANCE) FOR THIS EXCESSIVE HEAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FOURTH
OF JULY WEEKEND. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS TO CELEBRATE THE
HOLIDAY SHOULD MAKE EFFORTS TO HAVE COOLING AND HYDRATION
OPTIONS READILY AVAILABLE.
THE RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A MINIMUM
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH A HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE, THE
POSSIBILITY OF PULSE CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
RELATIVE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, WHERE 15-20% CHANCES EXIST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25-30KTS WILL CALM SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT, BUT INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
12Z ON MONDAY. LLWS CONCERNS WITH NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET RAMP
UP BEGIN AS EARLY AS 03Z AT KJLN AND AROUND 06Z AT KSGF,
DECREASING AFTER 12Z.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...CAMDEN
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