073
FXUS63 KSGF 151114
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
614 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 50-80% COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY (MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-44) AND THURSDAY (ENTIRE AREA) AFTERNOONS WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL.
- WARM WITH LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
100 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
A STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP AN UPPER
THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER AR/MS BORDER MEANDERING TO THE WEST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FOR TODAY, AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-44 WILL SEE THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AT 50-80%, WITH 10-30% NORTH OF
THERE. SOME STORMS ARE ALREADY OCCURING ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER,
BUT GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES
OF 1,000-1,500 J/KG AND WEAK SHEAR WILL PREVENT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER, SLOW STORM MOTIONS MAY LEAD TO VERY
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH REFS AND HREF PMM VALUES OF 2-3
INCHES. ANY FLOODING CONCERN WOULD BE MINOR AND VERY ISOLATED.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 TODAY.
THURSDAY WILL OVERALL BE A VERY SIMILAR SETUP, BUT THE LOW WILL
HAVE MOVED WEST AND CLOSER TO THE CWA, PUTTING THE ENTIRE AREA
UNDER THE 50-80% STORM COVERAGE. OTHERWISE, ALL ELSE REMAINS
THE SAME AS WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SUMMER TIME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY EACH DAY IN THE LONG TERM, BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE
DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.
NW FLOW WILL SHIFT A WARMER AIRMASS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN US
INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 (POSSIBLY INTO THE MID SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE 100). HEAT RISK IN THE MAJOR CATEGORY IS EXPECTED
AREA-WIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH MODERATE TO BORDERLINE MAJOR
SATURDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND MOST LIKELY AT KSGF AND KBBG.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...TITUS
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