891
FXUS63 KSGF 161712
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1212 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 30-60% COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE
90S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES. HOTTEST
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
90S TO AROUND 100, LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND 100-105.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY
65.
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, BUT
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL RANGE FROM 30% COVERAGE NEAR JOPLIN
TO 60% NEAR ROLLA. THIS IS DUE TO THE UPPER LOW HAVING SHIFTED
WEST FROM YESTERDAY, BUT BEING CLOSER TO THE AREA. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, REFS AND HREF PMM VALUES ARE VERY LOCALLY 2-3 INCHES,
SO SOME VERY LOCALIZED, MINOR FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
TOWARD CENTRAL MO. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY, LEADING TO 20-30%
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
THIS WEEKEND WILL SEEING INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS (POPS < 20%). LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS THE WARMEST
AIRMASS ADVECTS OVER THE AREA. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
90S TO AROUND 100 (HOTTEST ALONG/WEST OF I-49) ARE PLAUSIBLE
GIVEN HREF PROBABILITIES FOR 850MB TEMPS > 24C AROUND 50% OVER
THE WEST AND SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY SHOWING SEVERAL MATCHES FOR
>24C 850MB TEMPS AND SURFACE HIGHS OF 100 OR HIGHER. WILL
ADVERTISE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105 WITH HEATRISK IN THE
MAJOR CATEGORY BOTH DAYS. ALSO NOTEWORTHY THAT MONDAY NIGHT
LOWS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE PATTERN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IS LESS CERTAIN. THE FORECAST
FEATURES COOLER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S WITH
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
AT SGF. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND AGAIN
FRIDAY HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST WITH
SPEEDS LESS THAN 10KTS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG AT BBG AROUND 12Z FRIDAY THAT MIGHT REDUCE VIS TO
MVFR AND MAY NEED TO ADD TO FUTURE UPDATES.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page