186
FXUS63 KSGF 172334
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
634 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OZARKS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100
DEGREES. HOTTEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100, LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100-108.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA WAS PRODUCING FLOW
UP AND OVER THE HIGH WITH MOISTURE MOVING FROM THE GULF INTO
THE PLAINS AND THE OZARKS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING WERE ACTING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH COVERAGE DECREASING RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNSET. LIGHTNING WILL BE THE ONLY HAZARD WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
THE OVERALL PATTER WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE INTO SATURDAY WITH
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDICIES PEAKING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND 100. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MID
90S TO AROUND 100 WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-108 THANKS TO
CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND 850MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN
23-25 DEGREES C RANGE. HEATRISK OUTPUTS CONTINUE TO SHOW VALUES
OF MODERATE TO MAJOR. WILL MONITOR THIS PERIOD CLOSELY FOR ANY
NEEDED HEAT HEADLINES.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
TUESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH LITTLE RAIN
POTENTIAL IS NOTED IN THE MODELS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS
WILL THEN BRING A PATTERN CHANCE WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THIS WILL BRING MORE MODERATE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90, THE PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES AND ROUNDS SHOWERS AND STORMS HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING, BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND CHANCES FOR A
TAF SITE BEING IMPACTED IS LOW. OUT SIDE ANY STORMS, LIGHT
WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY AND COULD BE GUSTY AT
TIMES.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...WISE
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