164
FXUS63 KSGF 180632
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
132 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
SUNDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE ON SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND THE EASTERN OZARKS.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH
100-108 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:
BROAD RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST PRODUCING CONTINUED WARM, HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY:
MODELS SHOW A WEAK CAP PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE.
ABOVE THE CAP, LONG AND SKINNY THERMO PROFILES MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY, HOWEVER, AND POPS ARE LIMITED TO 20%.
A WEAK NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL STALL
SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI TONIGHT, AND A
FEW MODELS DEPICT ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION LINGERING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
SCATTERED STORMS LINGER INTO SUNDAY:
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED FROM NORTHERN
TO SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI ON SUNDAY. DIURNAL HEATING MAY ACT TO
REINVIGORATE CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE THEIR RELATIVE HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND THE EASTERN OZARKS, WHERE 30-50% POPS EXIST.
HEAT BUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK:
FORECAST TEMPERATURES TICK UP EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. WITH A CONTINUED MOIST AND
HUMID AIRMASS, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL START TO APPROACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS, IT'S POSSIBLE
NBM IS OVERDOING TEMPERATURES AND/OR DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY BY
UNDERCOOKING THE MIXING POTENTIAL. WITH CURRENT FORECAST MAXIMUM
HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-108 DEGREE RANGE (MARGINAL ADVISORY
CRITERIA), CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
POINT.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN MID-WEEK:
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES DEPICT FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DROPPING AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OUT OF EASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL ACT TO BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE MISSOURI OZARKS. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT, RESULTING IN
MORE PLEASANT FEELING CONDITIONS AND VERY LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES (<20%).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY AT TIMES SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY SATURDAY EVENING.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SATURDAY. COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFIDENCE IN A TAF SITE BEING IMPACTED IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...WISE
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