048
FXUS63 KSGF 181800
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
TODAY AND SUNDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE ON SUNDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THE EASTERN OZARKS.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH
100-108 DEGREES.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AHEAD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT:
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF COAST, WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90, WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. MEANWHILE, RADAR DEPICTS
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OZARK PLATEAU
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A RESULT OF SOME WEAK FORCING IN
THE VICINITY OF AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE A WEAK CAP SHOULD
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
15-25% POPS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE
THIS ACTIVITY CAN EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS SOME
LIGHTNING. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THROUGH EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
THERE IS STILL A FEW CAMS THAT CAPTURE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT STALLS INTO
NORTHERN MO TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THIS POTENTIAL,
WITH LESS THAN 10% POPS OVERNIGHT. LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY:
AS WE PROGRESS INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
WILL NUDGE INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MO AND THE EASTERN OZARKS.
THIS AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-50%) ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST A BIT BETTER COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS, THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING
REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOPPING OUT AROUND 100 TO 105.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
MONDAY-TUESDAY:
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES STRONGER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, SUPPORTING SOME OF THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON
FOR OUR AREA. HIGHS SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S, WITH THE
HOTTEST DAY COMING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PUSH INTO THE 100-108 RANGE.
THIS MAY SUPPORT THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECAST UPDATES. CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE A PATTERN CHANGE UNFOLDS INTO MID-WEEK.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CAPTURE A TROUGH AND UPPER-LEVEL
LOW BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS MID-WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
A COLD FRONT TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. A DRIER
AND COOLER AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION, WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL VARY FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA, WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S (WEST) TO MIDDLE
80S (EAST). THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS CAN BE GLEANED FROM THE NBM 8-12 DEGREE
INTERQUARTILE SPREAD ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK. THE
NEXT RAIN CHANCES (10-30%) COME ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS A CUMULUS
FIELD OVERSPREADS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS POSSIBLE, BUT THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO DEPICT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, TURNING LIGHTER TONIGHT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...PEREZ
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