405
FXUS63 KSGF 032322
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN MIDWEEK WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
- EXTREME HEAT POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AS WE
START THIS WORK WEEK, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
THIS IS LEADING TO A PLEASANT DAY, WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING SCATTERED FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS, AND OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE 80S (REACHING 90 FOR SOME)
SO FAR. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, EXPECT AREAS THAT HAVEN'T
EXPERIENCED PEAK HEATING YET TO CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES, WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, AND EVEN THE LOW 90S
FOR AREAS WEST OF I-49.
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE IN THE 60S FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE AREA, WITH SOME LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE LOW 70S. SOME
VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS,
HOWEVER WE'RE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG BY ANY MEANS.
TUESDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY, WITH ONLY A
3-DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE NBM 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES
LEADING TO HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS REACHING THE 90S FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA (UPPER 80S OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
OZARKS).
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN OUT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA CONTINUES TO PIVOT NORTHEAST,
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS.
MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY FOR THE BEGINNING HALF OF THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME ISOLATED CHANCES (10-25%) OF RAIN
NORTHWEST OF I-44 DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND CLOUD COVER
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS PROGGED TO EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL KS, PUSHING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER
CENTRAL MO. AS A RESULT, SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES (50-70%)
OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE, PRIMARILY FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF HIGHWAY 54
WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO SET UP. AS MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, CLOUD COVER AND THE POSITIONING OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
IF THE FRONTAL LIFT LINES UP WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY, THEN
SHEAR WOULD INCREASE, LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, A LINE SEGMENT OF SORTS WOULD BE
PROBABLE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN HAZARD BEFORE
INSTABILITY DECREASES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. AS THIS IS STILL A FEW
DAYS AWAY, MORE DETAILS NEED TO BE IRONED OUT BEFORE CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN ANY SPECIFICS.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL MO THURSDAY
BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (30-60%) BOTH DAYS.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM PUSHES OUT, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP, REACHING THE 90S OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE'LL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE EXTREME HEAT POTENTIAL, AS HEAT INDICES
LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE 100S FOR MANY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...SORIA
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