105
FXUS63 KSGF 041917
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
217 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65,
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
PENNIES AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN RISK.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ALL DAY RAINS ARE
NOT EXPECTED AND SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
DURING THIS TIME.
- EXTREME HEAT POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE EAST NORMAL EARLY AUGUST
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO THE MIDDLE 90S WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. NO RAIN
CHANCES WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT AS A CAP REMAINS IN PLACE.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, THE CAP WILL START TO WEAKEN
SOME, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER
WHICH WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK BUT A FEW STRONG
STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THE
MAIN RISK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE EAST A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE AS A SURFACE BASED CAP MAY REMAIN IN
PLACE, BUT IF ANY LINE SEGMENTS CAN DEVELOP THERE COULD BE A
DAMAGING WIND RISK WITH ANY BOW SEGMENTS ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AND NOT
ALL LOCATIONS COULD BE IMPACTED ESPECIALLY FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY COOL INTO THE 70S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING BUT SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING
MORNING HOURS. HIGHS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER
80S TO THE MIDDLE 90S THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100-105 DEGREES WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH THE HEATING OF
THE DAY AND SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THURSDAY, BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AS LIFT WILL BE MORE LIMITED ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL PUSH THE FRONT BACK
INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE
LIMITED ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH SO NOT ALL LOCATIONS COULD BE
IMPACTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WHERE
THE THE STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
MORNING, A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO 100-105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. THE ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 6 TO 7KFT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT, GENERALLY AT 10KT OR BELOW.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
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