867
FXUS63 KSGF 052318
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
618 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (10-30%
CHANCES) THIS EVENING. PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. LOW POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (50-80% CHANCES) TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL INTO
CENTRAL MO. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITHIN THE FLOOD
WATCH.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
- HEAT RETURNS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100 TO
105.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT:
A SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES THROUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW TODAY, WITH A
SURFACE FRONT SAGGING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KS AND CENTRAL
MO. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING. REMNANT OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FESTER
ALONG THE FRONT, MOSTLY IN FORM OF DISSIPATING SHOWERS. AS FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MINIMAL GIVEN A STOUT CAP IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH NOTING THE ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY UNSTABLE
(CAPE ~2500-3000 J/KG). IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP, THE
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE-
LIKE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 60 MPH. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NON-
SEVERE, IN ADDITION TO MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO TONIGHT, MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH A BIT INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MO AND WILL BE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH A 25 TO 30 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET OVERRIDES THE
FRONT, THAT GENERALLY BECOMES ORIENTED WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
AMPLE INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY, WITH PWATS PUSHING AROUND
2.0 INCHES WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES UPWARDS OF 1
TO 3+ INCHES PER A HOUR. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS,
BEFORE OUTFLOWS AND FRONT MOVEMENT SHIFT THE AXIS OF RAINFALL
WITH TIME. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS AN INCREASING CONCERN
FOR A LOCALIZED CORRIDOR OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
CAMS CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS ANTICIPATED
CORRIDOR, WITH THE GENERALLY CONSENSUS KEEPING IT NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IF THE AXIS REMAINS JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA, OR
NUDGES INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MO. NONETHELESS, A FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA FROM 10 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM
THURSDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FLOODING. THE CURRENT SCENARIO, SUGGESTS THAT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
2 INCHES REMAINS IN PLAY, WITH A LOCALIZED CORRIDOR OF 3 TO 5
INCHES. HREF AND REFS LPMMS EVEN PAINT THE PICTURE OF SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, PUSHING TOWARDS 5 TO 7 INCHES. WPC CAPTURED THE
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH A SLIGHT (2 OF 4) RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL, A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT. THIS IS A RESULT OF MORE
FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS NUDGING INTO
CENTRAL MO. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A BIT MORE ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS ARE
PLAUSIBLE, WITH STORM MODE REMAINING A QUESTION MARK, WHETHER WE
SEE EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OR MORE LINEAR SEGMENTS.
PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS. THE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE BEST
REALIZED WITH ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MO. ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY DISSIPATES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE BETTER LIFT BECOMES DISPLACED. FOR NOW, RAIN
CHANCES ARE AROUND 10-30%. HOWEVER, SPC INTRODUCED ANOTHER
MARGINAL (1 OF 5) RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LINGERING
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. OTHERWISE, A WIDE VARIANCE OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM MIDDLE 80S (NORTH) TO
MIDDLE 90S (SOUTH).
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE. THE
HIGHEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WILL FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT
ONCE AGAIN, AND THUS THERE MAY BE THE NEED TO EXPAND THE FLOOD
WATCH. THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WILL BE BETTER ANALYZED IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIKEWISE, WE
WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING. THE FRONT GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK:
AS WE GET BEYOND FRIDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY RETURNS
TO THE REGION. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO DRIER WEATHER. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY REACH BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 90S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 100 TO 105. THIS REMAINS THE STORYLINE HEADING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS HEAT IS FAIRLY COMMON FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR, WE WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEAT
HEADLINES. IT IS WORTH NOTING, THE AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES OR SHIFTS IN THE
PATTERN POTENTIALLY REINTRODUCING SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INTO OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF STORMS IS LIKELY TO
FORM IN EASTERN KANSAS AND MOVE EAST TOWARDS CENTRAL MISSOURI.
CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE NORTH OF THE SITES
HOWEVER HAVE CONTINUED PROB30 GROUPS FOR SGF AND JLN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IF STORMS BUILD FARTHER SOUTH THEN UPDATES WOULD BE
LIKELY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING
HOWEVER SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-069>071-083.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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