679
FXUS63 KSGF 060815
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
315 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE FLOOD WATCH SET TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM
THIS MORNING.
- 15-30% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MARGINAL (1 OF 5) TO
SLIGHT (2 OF 5) RISK FOR ANY STORM TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60-70 MPH. QUARTER-SIZED HAIL IS A
SECONDARY HAZARD.
- ADDITIONAL 30-50% SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY.
DETAILS ON LOCATIONS, COVERAGE, AND HAZARDS ARE UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME.
- HEAT PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100-105.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
A WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY
SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING ALONG
THE WELL-DEFINED NOSE OF A 25-30 KT LOW-LEVEL JET/WARM FRONT
PROVIDING STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION, THE ACTIVITY IS ACTUALLY
PRETTY MESSY WITH NO REAL DEFINED BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
AS A RESULT, RAIN RATES HAVE NOT PARTICULARLY ACHIEVED FLASH
FLOODING STATUS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH AREA IN OUR CWA.
IN OTHER SYNOPTIC NEWS, THE BIG PICTURE PATTERN HAS LARGELY
REMAINED UNCHANGED AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE
SHORT-TERM FORECAST. THIS CONSISTS OF BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS WITH A SOMEWHAT STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM
THE OK/TX PANHANDLE, THROUGH WEST/NORTH MISSOURI, AND UP INTO
THE GREAT LAKES.
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING THIS MORNING:
THERE'S STILL A GOOD CHUNK OF TIME LEFT TO SEE HOW STORMS
EVOLVE THROUGH THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
STILL ACTIVELY VEERING FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. AS THIS OCCURS, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUIT, SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
COUNTIES WITHIN OUR FLOOD WATCH. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF RAIN
RATES UP TO 1-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS,
THESE LOOK TO BE QUICKER IN NATURE WITH LESS TRAINING, LIMITING
THE FLOODING THREAT TO ONLY VERY LOCALIZED AREAS.
AS DAYTIME MIXING COMMENCES AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET DIMINISHES,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DECAY THROUGH THE MORNING.
SOME AREAS TO SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 105 TODAY:
WHILE RAIN WILL CLEAR THE AREA, AN OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO SET UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS WILL KEEP AREAS COOLER IN THE 80S TOWARD
CENTRAL MISSOURI. WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS PLENTIFUL (EXTREME
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS), TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100-105. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AS WE GET SOUTHWESTERLY
MIXING WINDS. THE HRRR IS AN EXTREME EXAMPLE WITH DEWPOINTS
DROPPING TO THE UPPER 50S (RHS IN THE 20S TO 30S). IF THIS
OCCURS, HEAT INDEX VALUES WOULD STAY A BIT LOWER. EITHER WAY,
EXPECT HOT CONDITIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREA OF OUR CWA
TODAY.
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING:
THE SOUTHWEST MIXING WINDS WILL ACTUALLY SET THE STAGE FOR A
SEVERE RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND THE REGION DURING THE DAY PROVIDING
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN 2000-4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. THE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD HELP POP SOME STORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT,
HOWEVER, HREF SOUNDING PLUMES SUGGESTS SOME CAPPING OF THE
ENVIRONMENT, AND IF THE DRIER SOLUTIONS PAN OUT, IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT FOR MANY STORMS TO FORM. THEREFORE, THERE IS A 15-30%
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
AS MENTIONED, THE MIXING WINDS WILL CREATE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, WITH THE RAP PLACING 8-9 C/KM 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES OVER
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. ADDITIONALLY, DCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG
ARE FORECAST BY THE RAP ALONG WITH ELEVATED MICROBURST
PARAMETERS. THEREFORE, DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM, SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT UP
TO 70 MPH. THIS IS DRIVING A SLIGHT (2 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54. STORM MODE IS A TAD
UNCERTAIN AS THE CAM ENSEMBLE SPREAD FOR DEEP-LAYER SHEAR RANGES
ANYWHERE FROM 25-35 KTS. IF SHEAR COMES OUT TOWARDS 35 KTS,
SUPERCELLS WOULD BE POSSIBLE, BRINGING A HAIL RISK OF UP TO
QUARTERS. LOWER SHEAR WOULD PROMOTE MORE MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS
LINE SEGMENTS. EITHER MODE, HOWEVER, WOULD STILL SUPPORT
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN HAZARD.
AS FOR TIMING, THESE LOOK TO BE RATHER DIURNAL, DEVELOPING
SOMETIME AFTER 3-4 PM, WITH THE RISK LASTING UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.
CAM SOLUTIONS THEN DIVERGE ON WHAT OCCURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IF
YOU TAKE THE HRRR AS THE ALL-KNOWING TRUTH, ADDITIONAL TRAINING
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. BUT THE REALITY IS THAT EACH CAM IS
ITS OWN OUTLIER. THEREFORE, WIDESPREAD 30-50% CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DEVELOPMENT AS WAA OVERTOP THE LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT
RETURNS. WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
OR FLOODING SIGNAL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN FRIDAY, DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN:
MUCH LIKE THE DISCUSSION FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN
THE LOCATION, TIMING, COVERAGE, AND HAZARDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FRIDAY. SINCE EACH CAM IS ITS OWN OUTLIER FOR STORM
EVOLUTION TONIGHT, EACH HAVE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION FRIDAY. BACK
TO THE BASICS OF SYNOPTIC METEOROLOGY, THOUGH, THE STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND, AND WITH INSTABILITY BEING NO
PROBLEM, WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE OVER OUR AREA (30-50% CHANCE).
HEAT PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK:
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, MAKING WAY FOR RISING HEIGHTS AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S, SOME AREAS APPROACHING 100
F. CURRENT DEWPOINT FORECASTS KEEP HEAT A TAD LOWER THAN
"EXCESSIVE" WITH LREF ENSEMBLES SHOWING <10% CHANCE FOR >105 F
HEAT INDEX VALUES. HOWEVER, THEY DO SHOW >60% CHANCES FOR >100 F
VALUES SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SO, WHILE AROUND 100
F HEAT INDEX IS NOT TERRIBLY UNCOMMON FOR OZARKIAN SUMMERS, THE
EXPECTED EXTENDED NATURE OF 100-105 F HEAT INDEX VALUES
INTRODUCES A HEAT RISK AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH ROOM FOR HEAT
RELIEF.
WHILE HEAT WILL BUILD, THE JET STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. SOME GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THE ENHANCED WINDS
DROPPING SOUTH NEAR OUR NORTHERN CWA. THIS MAY BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS, BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THESE TYPES OF
PATTERNS IS TOO HIGH FOR ANY APPRECIABLE MENTION ABOVE 15% UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. AS AN EXAMPLE, THE EFI DOES SHOW VALUES OF AROUND
0.8 FOR CAPE-SHEAR COMBO IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSOURI,
WHICH MAY HIGHLIGHT SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO COME CAREENING
DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OF THE JET STREAM SOMETIME NEXT WEEK,
BUT THESE ARE ALWAYS MESOSCALE MATTERS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD, WINDS WILL LARGELY BE 5-10 KTS OUT OF
THE SOUTH, SHIFTING BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND THE AREA. DUE TO THE FRONT IN THE
AREA, THERE IS SOME LOW-END CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES ON POTENTIAL
TIMING FOR THESE STORMS, BUT HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S IN THE TAF
FOR THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE TIMEFRAMES, WHICH GENERALLY ALIGNS
WITH THE BEST DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE, SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS SHOULD BE HANGING AROUND THE
AREA AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT CUMULUS CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE
RATHER HIGH (>5 KFT).
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-
069>071-083.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...PRICE
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