940
FXUS63 KSGF 061940
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
240 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MARGINAL (1 OF 5) SEVERE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. PRIMARY HAZARD
IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60-70 MPH. QUARTER- SIZED HAIL IS
A SECONDARY HAZARD.
- A MARGINAL (1 OF 4) EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK FOR LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-50%) FRIDAY.
DETAILS ON LOCATIONS, COVERAGE, AND HAZARDS ARE UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME.
- HEAT PERSISTS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES
APPROACHING 100-105.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING:
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME
REMNANTS THAT CONTINUE TO FESTER ALONG THE ESTABLISHED COLD POOL
AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. IF THIS ACTIVITY MAINTAINS
ITSELF, IT WILL BUILD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MO THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW THAT AT MAINTAINS
BEYOND EARLY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, A CAP IS IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH NOT A TRUE
PULSE THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT, THE OZARK PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM INDEX (OPSTI) HIGHLIGHTS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN
THE VICINITY OF AMPLE INSTABILITY (2000-3000 J/KG). DEEP LAYER
SHEAR REMAINS WEAKER AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS, THOUGH MAY SUPPORT A
FEW ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BECOME ESTABLISHED POSE THE RISK FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTERS.
HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH NOTING MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. POPS ARE CAPPED OFF AROUND 30 TO 50%, PRIMARILY TIED TO
PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. A FEW INSTANCES OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL BE QUITE THE VARIANCE FROM WEST
TO EAST, WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
TO MIDDLE 80S TO THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT OF LINGERING
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO TONIGHT, THE LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCES TO 25 TO
30 KNOTS AND OVERRIDES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING INTO
SOUTHEAST KS AND CENTRAL MO. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES OR HIGHER
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES AS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN KS. WHILE AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REMAINS PLAUSIBLE
OVERNIGHT, THE GENERAL CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE PRIMARY STORYLINE
BECOMES LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AS THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREAS. THE LATEST CAMS, INCLUDING HREF AND RRFS LPMMS
HIGHLIGHT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO. IN
GENERAL, MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. SOME LOCATIONS REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY, WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS (40-70%) FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST
MO, OR GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 49. A SCENARIO TO
MONITOR, IS MINIMAL COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT IF MID- LEVEL
FORCING/ASCENT IS DISPLACED FROM THE FRONT. THIS TREND WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
ONGOING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT
LOCATION, TIMING, AND COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM AN OVERVIEW,
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES (20-40%) IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE LATEST
TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 FOR
FRONTAL POSITIONING ON FRIDAY, AND WILL ULTIMATELY DRIVE THE
BEST CHANCES. WHILE UNCERTAINTY LINGERS IN FRIDAY'S COVERAGE,
THERE IS A CONSENSUS FOR ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
SATURDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK:
INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INTO THIS WEEKEND AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 90S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS EVEN
PUSHING NEAR 100 IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS AND SOUTHWEST MO. DEWPOINTS
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, WILL SUPPORT DAILY HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 TO 105 DEGREES. LREF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LOW
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 105 IN OUR AREA, WITH CHANCES
LIMITED TO AROUND < 10%. NONETHELESS, IT IS PLAUSIBLE HEADLINES
MAY NEED INTRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THE MULTI-DAY ASPECT OF THE
HEAT. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THE NWS HEATRISK DEPICTS WIDESPREAD MAJOR (3 OF 4) FOR POTENTIAL
HEAT- RELATED IMPACTS.
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD, THOUGH NOT
ZERO AS WE REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. ANY
SUBTLE BREAKDOWNS IN THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE AREA. BY MID-NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES ARE
BEGINNING TO HINT AT THE RETURN OF AN ACTIVE PATTERN AS THE
RIDGE BECOMES DISPLACED BACK WEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE STILL SOME LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BEFORE A LOW-LEVEL JET SPAWNS ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. INSTANCES OF MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL ACCOMPANY ANY PRECIPITATION, WITH CEILINGS AS LOW AS 2500
FEET AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 2 TO 4 MILES. RAIN CHANCES
LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT GRADUALLY SINKING
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS TURN MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST INTO TONIGHT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...PEREZ
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