720
FXUS63 KSGF 071928
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
228 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
PRIMARY RISK WILL BE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH WITH A
SECONDARY RISK OF HAIL TO QUARTERS.
- HEAT PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATE CHANCES
(50-60%) FOR MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN
100-105.
- A 40-50% CHANCE FOR ABOVE MID-AUGUST AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
(0.5-0.75 INCHES) LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK THIS AFTERNOON:
AN MCV WITH DECAYING CONVECTION MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
THIS MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THE EASTERN OZARKS WHERE CLOUD COVER IS
LESS PROMINENT. THIS IS WHERE THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. CAMS
DEPICT SBCAPE VALUES REACHING 2500-3500 J/KG WITH A WEAKENING
CAP. FURTHERMORE, GOOD MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8 C/KM,
0-3 KM THETA-E DIFFERENCES AROUND 25 C, AND A MICROBURST
PARAMETER OF 5 ALL SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION. SYNOPTIC-
SCALE DEEP- LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK (15-20 KT) WHICH WILL LIMIT
THE WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, BUT
FUNKY MCV INFLUENCES MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE SHEAR AND ALLOW FOR A
FEW MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
OUTLINED AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60-70 MPH, WITH A SECONDARY RISK FOR HAIL UP TO
QUARTERS IF UPDRAFTS CAN BE SUSTAINED LONG ENOUGH. STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ANYTIME BETWEEN 2 PM - 10 PM WITH THE GREATEST RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER BETWEEN 4 PM - 9 PM.
A SATURATED PROFILE WILL ALSO SUPPORT HIGH RAIN RATES UNDER THE
STRONGEST STORMS, WITH HOURLY RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. BOTH THE
12Z HREF AND REFS LPMM PRODUCTS SUGGEST ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 3
TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
THE EASTERN OZARKS, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
HOT SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE AREA.
NBM DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 70S, THOUGH A LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS AFTERNOON MIXING MAY KNOCK THEM
TOWN A TOUCH. REGARDLESS, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S,
CONDITIONS WILL FEEL QUITE HOT. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE
FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEG RANGE EACH DAY. WE
HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE ISSUANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THE
MARGINAL HEAT INDICES, BUT IF CONFIDENCE IN LOCATIONS REACHING
105 DEGREES ANY GIVEN DAY OR MULTIPLE DAYS OF 100+ INCREASES,
THEN A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK:
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE FLATTENING BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO THE RETURN OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH ANY SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. CURRENT NBM
POPS ARE IN THE 30-60% RANGE WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE CPC GIVES US A 40-50% CHANCE FOR SEEING ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN AUGUST 12-16. SINCE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IS AROUND 0.5-0.75 INCHES, THERE IS A
40-50% CHANCE FOR EXCEEDING THAT AMOUNT BETWEEN AUGUST 12-16.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS HAS
BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED STORMS IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60-70 MPH AND
QUARTER SIZED HAIL. WINDS WILL CONSISTENTLY TURN AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH, EVENTUALLY SETTLING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...DIDIO
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