675
FXUS63 KSGF 090723
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
223 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME HEAT WARNING ALONG A CORRIDOR ROUGHLY FROM THE JOPLIN
TO THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HEAT INDICES NEAR/AROUND 105 ARE EXPECTED ON A DAILY BASIS IN
THIS AREA. HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST WITH DAILY HEAT INDICIES AROUND 100.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY (30-50%),
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST US. THERE WAS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURING.
TEMPERATURES REMAINED VERY WARM WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE 00Z KSGF
SOUNDING SHOWED AN UNSTABLE BUT CAPPED AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR.
HOT TODAY - MORNING SPRINKLES NORTH?: THE WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE
CAMS INDICATE A WEAKENING/DISSIPATING AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA, WE THINK THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE TRUMAN LAKE AND LAKE OF THE OZARKS AREAS. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SOME INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS.
CLOUDS LOOK TO THIN OUT BY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT TEMPS TO SOAR
INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER
20'S CELSIUS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S WEST
OF HIGHWAY 65 WITH SLOWLY DECREASING TEMPS TO THE EAST. WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE NOTICEABLE THAN YESTERDAY WITH SOME
STRONGER MIXING OCCURING. THIS WILL CAUSE DEW POINTS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 60S HOWEVER SOME AREAS WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND
70. THIS LOOKS TO CREATE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICIES AROUND 100
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE OZARK
PLATEAU MAY MIX OUT A BIT MORE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS.
WHILE JOPLIN REACHED A HIGH OF 96 WITH A 103 HEAT INDEX
YESTERDAY, MOST OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THAT TYPE OF
HEAT TODAY AND WILL LAST MOST OF THE WEEK (MORE ON THAT BELOW).
THEREFORE WE CONVERTED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO A WARNING AND
MADE THE REST OF THE AREA INTO A HEAT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
EXTREME HEAT: AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, IT WILL BE A HOT WEEK AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPS SLOWLY INCREASE. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOUDS/SPRINKLE CHANCES AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING
HOWEVER NOT SEEING MUCH IMPACT CURRENTLY. DAILY TEMPS LOOK TO
REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA HOWEVER TEMPS MAY APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN
THE JOPLIN/SE KANSAS AREA. TYPICALLY THE RULE OF THUMB TO REACH
100 DEGREES IS THAT DRY VEGETATION/ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
NEEDED (BROWN GRASS RULE) AND THIS IS CERTAINLY TRUE IN THAT
AREA. THEREFORE GIVEN HIGHS APPROACHING 100, IT WONT TAKE MUCH
FOR HEAT INDICIES TO COME CLOSE TO OR EXCEED 105. THEREFORE THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR LOCATIONS TO REACH HEAT INDICIES AROUND
105 IS IN THE WARNING AREA. LOCATIONS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
OZARK PLATEAU TYPICALLY MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE AXIS AROUND THE
TABLE ROCK LAKE/BRANSON AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDICIES TO
REACH 105+ IN THAT AREA. NOT CONFIDENT IN THAT BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR MIXING IN THAT AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO SEE IF
THAT TREND DECREASES. ADDITIONAL MODIFICATIONS TO THE WARNING
AND ADVISORY ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THIS WEEK.
THE OTHER FACTOR INTO THE WARNING/ADVISORY DECISION IS THE VERY
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA EARLY THIS WEEK AS WINDS REMAIN
STEADY. THIS CAN SOMETIMES BE JUST AS IMPACTFUL AS THE DAYTIME
HEAT INDICIES. THE LATEST NWS HEAT RISK TOOL SHOWS THE ENTIRE
AREA IN THE MAJOR CATEGORY WITH NOW A FEW PIXELS OF THE EXTREME
CATEGORY BY TUESDAY. HEAT SENSITIVE GROUPS WILL NEED TO TAKE
PROPER PRECAUTIONS.
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW FAST THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN PAST
WEDNESDAY. LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE MAY HOLD ON
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE HEAT
PRODUCT EXTENSIONS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
RAIN CHANCES: AS JUST MENTIONED, THE RIDGE WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO
BREAK DOWN MID/LATE WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO
RETURN TO THE AREA HOWEVER THE HIGHEST CHANCES REMAIN JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA, CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY. WOULD EXPECT
ADDITIONAL MODIFICATIONS TO PRECIP CHANCES DEPENDING ON THE
PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
KSZ073-097-101.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MOZ055>058-066>069-077>080-088-089-093-094-101.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ070-
071-081>083-090>092-095>098-102>106.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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