995
FXUS63 KSGF 251121
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
621 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 30-40% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IF ENOUGH HEAT/INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP
AHEAD OF ANY STORMS. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- TEMPERATURES CLIMB THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURE AROUND 100F AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105F
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
AFTER ANY ISOLATED MORNING FOG BURN OFF, IT WILL BE A UNEVENTFUL
DAY, WEATHER-WISE. LOOK FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S NE
TO THE MID 90S W. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AND SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
GENERAL SYNOPSIS: THE LONGSTANDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL BREAK DOWN INTO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE VERY WARM AIRMASS
UNDER THE RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR AREA. AN UPPER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SOMEWHERE GENERALLY UPSTREAM OF OUR AREA,
WHICH MAY THEN MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: ONCE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPS, WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET A BETTER IDEA OF IT'S DOWNSTREAM PATH AND
TIMING, BUT AT THIS TIME MODELS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF PATH AND
TIMING OUTCOMES. THE LOWEST IMPACT SCENARIO IS THAT THE COMPLEX
MISSES THE AREA OR MOVES THROUGH DURING INSTABILITY THE MORNING
WHEN INSTABILITY IS LOWEST. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO IS THAT THE
COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE, RESULTING IN A SEVERE THREAT AND
ALSO A HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT AS PWATS MAY BE NEAR 2 INCHES.
CURRENTLY, THERE IS ROUGHLY A 30-40% CHANCE OF THIS SCENARIO
PLAYING OUT, BUT THAT MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. NBM
PROBABILISTIC SBCAPE SPREAD DEMONSTRATES THE MODEL SPREAD WELL,
WITH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON VALUES RANGING FROM 10TH PERCENTILE
VALUES OF AROUND 1,000 J/KG AND 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES AROUND
4,000 J/KG. 50TH PERCENTILE VALUES ARE AROUND 2,000 J/KG.
ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS, WHICH
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL
UNCERTAINTY DETAILS, WILL ADVERTISE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR 1
INCH HAIL, 60 MPH WIND, AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
AFTER HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE WARM
AIRMASS OVER THE WEST SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA, RESULTING IN
MID TO UPPER 90S W SATURDAY AND MID 90S TO LOW 100S AREA-WIDE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND 100-105 ON MONDAY. THESE HOTTER
CONDITIONS MAY STICK AROUND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, PER
ENSEMBLE SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AROUND +10 TO +15F
(NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 80S NEXT WEEK). CPC HAS
A HIGH RISK FOR EXTREME HEAT NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
AFTER MORNING FOG AT KBBG BURNS OFF, ALL SITES WILL BE VFR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 15-20% CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE AND
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...TITUS
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