668
FXUS63 KSGF 262248
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
548 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON, MOVING OUT BY SUNSET. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH A LOWER RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.
- COOLER, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- ABOVE-AVERAGE HEAT RETURNS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100F AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
100-105F POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
IT HAS BEEN A CLEAR, WARM START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S AND APPROACHING 90 BY NOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A
WEAKENING MCV CHURNS AWAY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, HAVING MISSED OUR
AREA ENTIRELY THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TO REMAIN WARM AND CLOUD-FREE. WHILE THERE IS PLENTY OF SBCIN
IN PLACE, MLCIN HAS BEGUN TO ERODE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, AND A
SMALL POCKET OF FREE CONVECTING CU TOWERS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IN
THE TANEY-OZARK-DOUGLAS COUNTY VICINITY. WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT IS
QUITE DIFFUSE AND DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN, THE 850MB FRONT IS CLEARLY
POSITIONED ROUGHLY ALONG I-44. RAP SOUNDINGS DEPICT THE LFC SLOWLY
MIXING LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, LANDING JUST ABOVE 850MB AT
THIS TIME. WE MAY SEE THESE CU TOWERS STRUGGLE UNTIL THE FORCING AND
LFC FINALLY MEET AS WE CONTINUE TO MIX HEADED INTO PEAK HEATING.
RECENT CAM RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO BACK OFF ON THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF AGITATED CU
ALREADY EVIDENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-44, I AM HESITANT TO GET TOO
COMFORTABLE WITH A "DECREASING THREAT" SCENARIO. THE RAP STILL
DEPICTS UP TO 2500 J/KG MLCAPE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ARKANSAS BORDER.
HODOGRAPHS ARE STILL ELONGATING AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY ABOVE 1 KM. THE OZARK PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INDEX
IS STILL NEARLY MAXED OUT THROUGHOUT THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT
SWEEPS SOUTH OF I-44 OWING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW ENOUGH
VALUES OF CIN TO ALLOW FOR THE REALIZATION OF THE 2-3K J/KG OF
MLCAPE. IF THE CIN DOES NOT ERODE QUICKLY ENOUGH OVER A LARGE ENOUGH
AREA, WE MAY SEE STORMS CONFINED QUITE A BIG FARTHER SOUTH THAN I-
44. IT IS INCREASINGLY BECOMING APPARENT THAT ONLY THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA MAY SEE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
(SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI).
REGARDLESS OF COVERAGE, STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF 60-70
MPH WIND GUSTS BOTH IN THE FORM OF DOWNBURSTS AND AND LINE SEGMENTS
THAT FORM WITH CONGEALING CELLS ALONG THE LINE. AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND VERY HIGH PW VALUES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SUBSTANTIAL NEGATIVE BUOYANCY. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF BULK
SHEAR STORMS ARE ABLE TO FULL REALIZE, LARGE HAIL BECOMES A
SECONDARY CONCERN. QUARTER-SIZED HAIL IS CERTAINLY ON THE TABLE;
OUR CHANCES FOR BIGGER HAIL HAVE LIKELY ENDED.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE AREA BY 8-9 PM AT THE LATEST, ENDING
STORM CHANCES BEFORE THE OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NOTICE A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT THE MOST
OBVIOUS IMPACT OF THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
60S TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS ARE ACTUALLY
QUITE SIMILAR TOMORROW, BUT THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
TEMPER HEAT INDEX VALUES A FAIR AMOUNT. APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE VERY CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S NEAR
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND IN THE LOW 90S IN SOUTHWEST MO.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
WE WILL ENJOY MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S THROUGH
FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BUILDING EAST INTO OUR
AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESUME, AND WAA WILL BEGIN WARMING
THINGS UP ALONG WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING FROM THE HIGH
PRESSURE. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WITH THE EXTREME FORECAST
INDEX AT VALUES OF 0.8-0.9. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE
90S, AND EVEN NEAR 100 F, BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL ALSO RISE TO 95-105 F, WITH THE GREATEST VALUES TOWARD THE
MISSOURI- ARKANSAS BORDER. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AS MUCH AS 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. THE CPC HEAT INDEX
FORECAST SHOWS A 70-90% CHANCE TO EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGY RANGE SOMETIME IN EARLY SEPTEMBER.
RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO BE MINIMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE PERSISTENT
WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA, WHICH COULD
REALISTICALLY MOVE SOUTH ENOUGH TO IMPACT CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. THESE CHANCES WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE CLOSER TO 06Z,
AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY ONCE AGAIN AROUND 18Z. SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS AND CLEAR VISIBILITY. THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CLEARED THE TAF SITES AND ARE NO
LONGER A THREAT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NELSON
LONG TERM...NELSON
AVIATION...NELSON
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