228
FXUS63 KSGF 270747
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY, ABOVE-AVERAGE
HEAT RETURNS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE DAYS
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 90-100 F AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
OF 95-105 F ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
THE CURRENT STATE OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. NORTHWESTERLY MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW STILL
DOMINATES OUR REGION WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, AND
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE MAIN CHANGES ARE THAT A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS HAS BROUGHT A SURFACE COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED RIGHT
ON, OR JUST SOUTH, OF THE MISSOURI-ARKANSAS BORDER. A RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
60S TONIGHT, AS OPPOSED TO THE 70S FROM PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS SOME LIGHT GROUND/VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING NEAR BRANSON AND IN THE EASTERN OZARKS. ANY PATCHY
FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY:
DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR A COUPLE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS, THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
FEEL SOMEWHAT PLEASANT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S (WARMER TOWARD THE SW CORNER
OF MO AND SE CORNER OF KS), WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY, SAVE FOR A FEW PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS AND CUMULUS CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. THERE ARE VERY
LOW CHANCES (<10%) OF REMNANT SHOWERS FROM THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES IN THE PLAINS MAKING IT INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW,
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS VERY, VERY LOW.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
CLIMATOLOGICALLY ABNORMAL HEAT RETURNS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK:
COME SATURDAY, THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN BUILDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA, BRINGING
WITH IT THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL REVITALIZE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
SUBSEQUENT COMPRESSIONAL AND ADVECTION HEATING. ACCORDING TO
NAEFS AND ECMWF ESATS, 99.5TH PERCENTILE 700 MB TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH THE EXTREME
FORECAST INDEX AT VALUES OF 0.85-0.95. THESE VALUES HAVE BEEN
STEADILY INCREASING THE PAST FEW FORECASTS AS GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
TIGHTEN TOWARD THE UPPER END OF THE TEMPERATURE SPREADS. HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 90S, AND EVEN NEAR 100 F, BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO RISE TO 95-105 F, WITH
THE GREATEST VALUES TOWARD THE MISSOURI-ARKANSAS BORDER. WHILE
THIS LEVEL OF HEAT IS NOT CRAZY FOR WHAT WE'VE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED THIS AUGUST, IT IS ABNORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER (AS
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE ESATS AND EFI). THE CPC HEAT INDEX
CLIMATOLOGY/FORECAST SHOWS 90TH PERCENTILE HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER AT 95-100 F, WITH A 90-99% CHANCE TO EXCEED
THAT RANGE AT SOME POINT IN EARLY SEPTEMBER.
IN ADDITION TO THE ABNORMAL HEAT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD, THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER MULTIPLE DAYS, WHICH
WILL BRING BACK A HEAT RISK FOR THOSE VULNERABLE TO HEAT AND/OR
WITHOUT PROPER COOLING METHODS. NWS HEATRISK BRINGS IN MAJOR TO
EXTREME VALUES TO OUR AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HEAT-RELATED
PRECAUTIONS WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN AS WE ENTER THIS TIMEFRAME.
WITH RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, RAIN CHANCES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MINIMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID, GLOBAL
MODELS AND NBM RAIN CHANCES ARE QUITE PERSISTENT WITHIN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA, SO IT WOULD NOT BE
TOO OUT OF PLACE TO SEE A FEW RAIN CHANCES SNEAK INTO THE AREA
AT SOME POINTS.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND:
WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS BEHIND THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
SATURDAY, MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO LAG A BIT BEHIND.
ADDITIONALLY, THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BREEZY,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65, WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-20
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 15-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. PAIR THIS WITH THE
HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S, AND YOU HAVE A RECIPE FOR HOT, DRY,
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE HOT, DRY, AND WINDY INDEX (HDWI) IS
PICKING UP ON THIS, WITH NEAR CERTAINTY IN ABOVE 90TH PERCENTILE
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND AROUND A 50% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING THE 95TH PERCENTILE. THEREFORE, SOME ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BECOME PRESENT WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 WHERE THE
HOTTEST, DRIEST, AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE AS THIS ARE IS CURRENTLY IN A
MODERATE DROUGHT AND CONTINUING ITS WAY INTO SEVERE DROUGHT
TERRITORY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE
AREA. SOME STATIONS IN BETWEEN SGF/JLN/BBG HAVE REPORTED
VISIBILITY FLUCTUATIONS. THAT SAID, ANY FOG WOULD BE SHALLOW,
LOCALIZED, AND NOT OVERLY DENSE.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE CALM AND VARIABLE THROUGH 16-18Z BEFORE
INCREASING TO 8-12 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH. AS WINDS PICK UP, A 7-8
KFT CU FIELD SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP. AFTER 01-03Z, WINDS TURN TO
NORTHEASTERLY AND DIMINISH TO 3-8 KTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...PRICE
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