403
FXUS63 KSGF 280745
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
245 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.
- MULTIPLE DAYS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 90-100 F AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 95-110 F ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY-THURSDAY, WITH
MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
- ONCE THE HEAT STARTS, IT IS NOT FORECAST TO END ANYTIME SOON.
THE CPC FORECASTING A 70-80% CHANCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH SEPTEMBER 4-10.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW CALM WINDS ACROSS THE OZARKS
WITH NO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES NEARBY, AND A BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN IOWA. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE ON TRACK TO COOL INTO THE LOWER 60S. WHILE THE
REGION IS STILL UNDERNEATH BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, RAP
ANALYSIS MAPS SHOW THAT THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
HAS BEGUN SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND:
AS THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA,
HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY
BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
SOMEWHAT NEAR NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO MIDDLE 90S, WARMING TO
THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAVERSING RIDGE PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE
AREA. EACH DAY, THE WARMEST VALUES WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 65,
CLOSER TO THE GREATEST HEIGHTS ALOFT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE 60S TONIGHT,
INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE WEST-TO-EAST
GRADIENT AS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE PATTERN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
CLIMATOLOGICALLY ABNORMAL HEAT RETURNS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK:
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK FOR HEAT TO
RETURN TO THE AREA, AND POTENTIALLY FOR AN EXTENDED AMOUNT OF
TIME. THE EXTREME FORECAST INDEX TRENDS HAVE CONTINUED TO GO UP
OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS (NOW AT 0.9-0.99) AS NBM TEMPERATURE
SPREADS CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AROUND THE UPPER-END OF THE
SPECTRUM. THIS SIGNIFIES AN ANOMALOUS EVENT, BUT NOT QUITE
RECORD-CHALLENGING AS OF YET. HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM 93 TO RIGHT AROUND 100 F WITH RECORDS AT OUR CLIMATE
SITES GENERALLY BEING JUST ABOVE 100 F. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE
OVERLY HIGH EITHER, WHICH WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY
BETWEEN 95-105, THOUGH SOME AREAS TOWARD THE SW CORNER OF MO AND
SE CORNER OF KS MAY SEE SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 105 F
(15-20% CHANCE FROM THE LATEST LREF ENSEMBLE).
REGARDLESS, THE ABNORMAL HEAT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD (EARLY
SEPTEMBER) IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER MULTIPLE DAYS, WHICH
WILL INTRODUCE A HEAT RISK FOR THOSE VULNERABLE TO HEAT AND/OR
WITHOUT PROPER COOLING METHODS. NWS HEATRISK BRINGS IN MAJOR TO
EXTREME VALUES TO OUR AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HEAT-
RELATED PRECAUTIONS WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN AS WE ENTER THIS
TIMEFRAME. IT SEEMS THERE'S A MODERATELY-HIGH CHANCE (50-80%)
THAT AT LEAST A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ONCE 4 DAYS OF 100+
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ACHIEVED.
WITH RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, RAIN CHANCES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MINIMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID, GLOBAL
MODELS DO OUTPUT A FEW SPLOTCHES OF QPF IN OUR AREA SOME OF THE
DAYS THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE, A FEW INSTANCES OF POP-UP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT SOME DAYS DESPITE LOW
(<15%) CHANCES.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND:
WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS BEHIND THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
SATURDAY, MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO LAG A BIT BEHIND.
ADDITIONALLY, THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BREEZY,
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65, WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS
OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 15-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. PAIR THIS
WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 F, AND YOU
HAVE A RECIPE FOR HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE HOT, DRY,
AND WINDY INDEX (HDWI) IS PICKING UP ON THIS, WITH NEAR
CERTAINTY IN ABOVE 90TH PERCENTILE CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, AND AROUND A 50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THE 95TH PERCENTILE.
THEREFORE, SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BECOME
PRESENT WEST OF HIGHWAY 65, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY, WHERE/WHEN THE
HOTTEST, DRIEST, AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE AS THIS ARE IS CURRENTLY IN A
MODERATE TO SEVERE (D1 TO D2 OUT OF 4) DROUGHT.
HEAT FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SEPTEMBER 4-10:
THE CPC'S 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO HOLD US IN A
70-80% CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE SEPTEMBER
4-10 PERIOD AS RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS
OUR AREA. NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS LEADING UP TO THIS PERIOD
CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE UPPER 90S, WITH EVEN SOME
TAILS OF THE SPREADS DEPICTING HIGHS BETWEEN 100-105 AROUND
SEPTEMBER 4-6. THIS WOULD BECOME RECORD-CHALLENGING IF
REALIZED. THEREFORE, BE PREPARED FOR ANOTHER PERSISTENT HEAT
WAVE AS WE GO THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER AND
METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
3-8 KT EASTERLY WINDS BELOW ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND
ELEVATED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 30:
KSGF: 101/2000
KJLN: 103/2000
AUGUST 31:
KJLN: 105/2000
KVIH: 100/2000
SEPTEMBER 1:
KVIH: 99/1953
SEPTEMBER 2:
KSGF: 101/2000
KVIH: 99/1899
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 30:
KSGF: 73/2013
KJLN: 76/1945
KVIH: 75/1951
AUGUST 31:
KSGF: 76/2011
KJLN: 80/2011
KVIH: 75/1980
SEPTEMBER 1:
KSGF: 77/1922
KJLN: 80/2011
KUNO: 74/1989
KVIH: 76/2011
SEPTEMBER 2:
KSGF: 76/1922
KJLN: 77/1961
KUNO: 73/1980
KVIH: 75/1898
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...PRICE
CLIMATE...CAMDEN
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