243
FXUS63 KSGF 291841
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
141 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PROLONGED HEAT WAVE AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH
DAILY HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO LOW 100S, AND MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 TO 105. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF HEAT HEADLINES NEXT WEEK, WITH MAJOR (3 OF 4) TO
EXTREME (4 OF 4) HEAT RISK AND WBGT RISK EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA.
- LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WITH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS AMPLIFYING A RAPID ONSET DROUGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE (70-80% CHANCE) INTO MID SEPTEMBER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
CONTINUED WARMER BUT OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MO
TO THE MID 70S NORTHWEST OF I-44.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
FAIRLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
NEXT SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MEANDERS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST.
PRECIPITATION: LITTLE TO NONE. 15-20% CHANCES NEXT SATURDAY.
HEAT: IN GENERAL, AREAS NW OF I-44 SHOULD SEE THE HIGHER END OF
THE TEMPERATURE SPECTRUM, BUT AREAS SE OF I-44 WILL HAVE HIGHER
HUMIDITY, SO IMPACTS WILL OVERALL BE SIMILAR ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECTED DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S. LOOK FOR HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 100-105+. HEAT RISK WILL BE IN THE MAJOR TO
EXTREME CATEGORIES. WBGT CATEGORIES WILL BE HIGH TO EXTREME.
HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE COMING DAYS. THIS IS
WELL SUPPORTED BY THE NBM, ENSEMBLES, AND ENSEMBLE TOOLS.
FOR ADDITIONAL CONTEXT, AVERAGE HIGHS IN LATE AUGUST TO EARLY
SEPTEMBER ARE IN THE MID 80S, SO WE WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES
OF 10-15+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME RECORDS (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION) MAY BE BROKEN, BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS
TEMPERATURES BELOW RECORDS.
HOW LONG WILL THE HEAT LAST? ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS CPC OUTLOOKS
SUGGEST POSSIBLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF SEPTEMBER. THIS WILL
CONTINUE OUR RAPID ONSET DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY: HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS (MINIMUM RH
OF 25-35%) AND S/SW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH GUSTING TO 15-25 MPH
(STRONGEST ALONG/WEST OF I-49) MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED GRASSFIRE
POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 29:
KJLN: 103/2000
AUGUST 30:
KSGF: 101/2000
KJLN: 103/2000
KVIH: 99/2000
AUGUST 31:
KSGF: 102/2000
KJLN: 105/2000
KVIH: 100/2000
SEPTEMBER 1:
KSGF: 102/2000
KJLN: 105/2000
KVIH: 99/1953
KUNO: 101/2000
SEPTEMBER 2:
KSGF: 101/2000
KJLN: 105/2000
KVIH: 99/1899
KUNO: 101/2000
SEPTEMBER 3:
KSGF: 102/2000
KJLN: 102/1954
KVIH: 100/1897
SEPTEMBER 4:
KJLN: 102/1954
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 30:
KSGF: 73/2013
KJLN: 76/1945
KVIH: 75/1951
AUGUST 31:
KSGF: 76/2011
KJLN: 80/2011
KVIH: 75/1980
SEPTEMBER 1:
KSGF: 77/1922
KJLN: 80/2011
KUNO: 74/1989
KVIH: 76/2011
SEPTEMBER 2:
KSGF: 76/1922
KJLN: 77/1961
KUNO: 73/1980
KVIH: 75/1898
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...TITUS
CLIMATE...TITUS
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