912
FXUS63 KSGF 300701
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
201 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PROLONGED HEAT WAVE AHEAD TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH
DAILY HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO LOW 100S, AND MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 TO 105. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF HEAT HEADLINES NEXT WEEK, WITH MAJOR (3 OF 4) TO
EXTREME (4 OF 4) HEAT RISK AND WBGT RISK EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA.
- LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WITH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS AMPLIFYING A RAPID ONSET DROUGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE (70-80% CHANCE) INTO MID SEPTEMBER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT:
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE REGION
TODAY, WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. THIS WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT HEAT WAVE OVERSPREADING THE OZARKS, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
100 ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 49 CORRIDOR. DEWPOINTS
GRADUALLY INCREASE, THOUGH REMAIN RELATIVELY "LOW" IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 100 TO 105 DEGREES.
MEANWHILE, BREEZY SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. AS MIXING OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO
AROUND 25 TO 35%. THIS COMBINATION OF HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ELEVATED GRASSFIRE CONDITIONS,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH REGARDS
TO GRASSLANDS AND FINER FUELS.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S (EAST) TO MIDDLE/UPPER 70S
(WEST).
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
NEXT WEEK:
AS WE PROGRESS INTO MONDAY, THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB TEMPERATURES PUSH TOWARDS 21 TO
24 C, WHICH IS HIGHLY ANOMALOUSLY FOR LATE AUGUST. THIS WILL
CORRELATE TO DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S,
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 49 CORRIDOR PUSHING
100. THIS PRONOUNCED HEAT WAVE WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST, IN
WHICH AVERAGE HIGHS ARE TYPICALLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RECORD TEMPERATURES AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES
OF 100 TO 105+ DEGREES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MINIMAL OVERNIGHT
RELIEF WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. THE EXTENT OF THE
EXTREME HEAT IS WELL CAPTURED BY THE NWS HEATRISK PRODUCT, WITH
WIDESPREAD MAJOR (3/4) TO EXTREME (4/4) HEAT RISK OVER THE AREA.
THIS OUTLINES THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT- RELATED IMPACTS, WITH
INCREASING CONCERNS AS THE PROLONGED HEAT ENVELOPS THE ENTIRE
AREA. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THE HEAT WAVE REMAINS LOCKED IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. HOWEVER, SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE HEAT PERSISTS EVEN BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH WPC AND CPC HIGHLIGHTING EXTREME HEAT OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS WELL INTO EARLY/MID SEPTEMBER. NBM
INTERQUARTILE TEMPERATURES SPREADS INCREASE (5 TO 10 DEGREES)
BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH THE SIGNAL IS TRENDING TOWARDS AT
LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA REMAINING IN EXTREME HEAT.
CURRENTLY, THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105+ DEGREES
OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS TIME PERIOD IS
WHEN DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE HIGHEST, IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE, HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED AS WE MEET CRITERIA OF GREATER THAN 100 DEGREE HEAT INDEX
VALUES FOR 4 OR MORE CONSECUTIVE DAYS. CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES
EARLY THIS WEEK.
THIS PERIOD OF EXTREME HEAT WILL BE DRY WITH NO MENTIONABLE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE
EXTENT AND COVERAGE OF THIS HEAT WAVE WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY
DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA, WITH D1 AND D2 NOW IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KS AND SOUTHWEST MO. CPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS FOR A RAPID ONSET DROUGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 29:
KJLN: 103/2000
AUGUST 30:
KSGF: 101/2000
KJLN: 103/2000
KVIH: 99/2000
AUGUST 31:
KSGF: 102/2000
KJLN: 105/2000
KVIH: 100/2000
SEPTEMBER 1:
KSGF: 102/2000
KJLN: 105/2000
KVIH: 99/1953
KUNO: 101/2000
SEPTEMBER 2:
KSGF: 101/2000
KJLN: 105/2000
KVIH: 99/1899
KUNO: 101/2000
SEPTEMBER 3:
KSGF: 102/2000
KJLN: 102/1954
KVIH: 100/1897
SEPTEMBER 4:
KJLN: 102/1954
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 30:
KSGF: 73/2013
KJLN: 76/1945
KVIH: 75/1951
AUGUST 31:
KSGF: 76/2011
KJLN: 80/2011
KVIH: 75/1980
SEPTEMBER 1:
KSGF: 77/1922
KJLN: 80/2011
KUNO: 74/1989
KVIH: 76/2011
SEPTEMBER 2:
KSGF: 76/1922
KJLN: 77/1961
KUNO: 73/1980
KVIH: 75/1898
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...PEREZ
CLIMATE...CAMDEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page