737
FXUS63 KSGF 310456
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1156 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LATE SUMMER HEAT WAVE KEEPS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-90S TO LOW 100S THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS ONLY COOLING TO MID- TO UPPER 70S IN MANY AREAS.
- DAILY 100+ DEGREE HEAT INDICES LEND TO HEAT HEADLINES ALL
WEEK, WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AREAWIDE FROM 12PM TO 8PM
ON MONDAY. AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM
TUESDAY THROUGH 8PM FRIDAY.
- LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WITH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS AMPLIFYING A RAPID ONSET DROUGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR AN EARLY ONSET TO
THE FALL FIRE WEATHER SEASON.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (70-80%
CHANCE) AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO MID-SEPTEMBER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS & SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS RETURNED AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA, TURNING UP THE HEAT ONCE AGAIN. THE 21.75C
850MB TEMPERATURE RECORDED ON OUR 12Z KSGF SOUNDING ACTUALLY
BREAKS THE DAILY 12Z 850MB TEMP RECORD, WITH 12Z CONUS UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATING OUR PLACEMENT ALONG THE NORTHERN 594DM
CONTOUR THAT COMPOSES THE HEART OF THE RIDGE AT 500MB. BACKWARDS
HYSPLIT ANALYSIS CONFIRMS THAT THE LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT THAT
CAN BE SEEN ON OUR 12Z SOUNDING IS IN FACT AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER THAT ADVECTED OVER OUR AREA FROM THE ROCKIES, AND THE
NEAR-SURFACE DRY AIR MASS IS BEING MIXED UP TO THE BOTTOM OF THE
EML UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AFTERNOON
MIXING HAS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS CAUSED BY THE
TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW IN NORTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE SFC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN TENNESSEE
VALLEY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH OBSERVED AT TIMES LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAY/TONIGHT:
HIGHS ARE APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
THE DRY AIR MIXING DOWN IS HELPING TO KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
60S TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE AREA. THESE LOWERED DEW POINTS ARE
PREVENTING HEAT INDICES FROM CLIMBING MORE THAN 2-3 DEGREES
ABOVE THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE. WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE ACROSS
AREAS OF THE PLAINS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE PLATEAU, WITH
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS STAYING A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITHIN THE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN OZARKS. WIDESPREAD 25-35%
RHS THIS AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI, WHERE GUSTY WINDS OVERLAP WITH
THE LOWER RHS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL TO THE UPPER 60S
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SPINE OF THE PLATEAU, AND THE MID- TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
HEAT:
HEAT REMAINS THE MAIN STORY OF THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. NOT MUCH
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES, WITH ENSEMBLES REMAINING
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.,
WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FLATTENING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE MIDWEEK. THE RIDGE
BUILDS BACK NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THE
WAVE ONCE IT EXITS, PERHAPS GETTING A SECOND A WIND LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EVEN THE AI GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES,
WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE BETTER AT DETECTING THE BREAKDOWN OF
PERSISTENT BLOCKED HIGHS LIKE THESE AT LONGER LEAD TIMES, SHOW
NO SIGN OF TRUE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
HEAT STARTS REALLY SETTLING IN TOMORROW, WITH EXPECTED HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING. THE MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH PEAK HEATING WILL HELP TO REDUCE DEW POINTS AND
OVERALL HEAT INDICES, BUT EVEN WITH THIS DRIER AIR MASS, IT'S
GOING TO FEEL QUITE HOT. 1-2 DEGREE DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE
AND/OR DEW POINT COULD RESULT IN US EITHER OVERACHIEVING OUR
105 DEGREE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, OR STAYING JUST BELOW IT,
BUT A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA WILL BE FLIRTING WITH OR MEETING
CRITERIA, SO A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 12 PM - 8 PM
MONDAY WITH IMPACTS IN MIND. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDICES WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE PLATEAU, WITH NORTH
OF I-44/ALONG I-49 PROVIDING A REASONABLE PROXY.
TEMPERATURES THEMSELVES DON'T NECESSARILY INCREASE AS THE WEEK
CONTINUES, MORESO REMAINING STEADILY IN THE UPPER 90S/LOW 100S,
BUT MOISTURE DOES INCREASE A BIT AS THE WEEK GOES ON, WHICH DOES
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN HEAT INDICES THROUGH THE WEEK. PERHAPS
MORE NOTABLE IS THE LACK OF OVERNIGHT RELIEF, WITH NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING TO 75-80 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE REPEATED BOUTS OF
AFTERNOON MIXING COULD HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES DOWN DURING THE
DAY AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL LOWER AT NIGHT IN SOME AREAS,
THE COMBINATION OF 5+ DAYS OF HIGHLY ANOMALOUS HEAT AND THE
LIKELY RECORD-HIGH OVERNIGHT LOWS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW)
BRING OUR HEATRISK WELL INTO THE MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) CATEGORY
AND INTO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) LEVELS IN NORTHERN/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EVERY DAY THIS WEEK. RIGHT NOW, CONFIDENCE
IS QUITE HIGH IN 100+ DEGREE HEAT INDICES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
105+ AND 100-104 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND. AS SUCH, AN
EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING 12 PM ON TUESDAY
AND CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM FRIDAY. THIS WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED
A HEAT ADVISORY AND/OR EXTREME HEAT WARNING AS CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT HEAT INDEX VALUES AT INDIVIDUAL LOCATIONS BECOMES MORE
CLEAR AS THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK UNFOLDS.
BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD, CPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT 60-70%
CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH
SEPTEMBER 13 IN THEIR 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK.
RAIN CHANCES (OR LACK THEREOF):
NBM RAIN CHANCES REMAIN <30% THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ONE THING
TO CONSIDER WITH RAINFALL CHANCES IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE TO THE
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MAY DISRUPT THE PATTERN ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE LOW BUT MENTIONABLE POPS THURSDAY AND BEYOND,
ESPECIALLY IF THE WESTWARD RETROGRADE OF THE RIDGE BEHIND THAT
WAVE MOVES IT FAR ENOUGH WEST TO POSITION US ALONG ITS EASTERN
EDGE, WHICH MIGHT ALLOW US TO GET SOME "RIDGE RIDER" STORMS.
THAT BEING SAID, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO PROGGED BY ENSEMBLES
KEEPS US WELL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE, AND PRECIP FREE,
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
DROUGHT/FIRE WEATHER:
THE COMBINATION OF PROLONGED HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
EXACERBATE THE EXISTING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, WHICH HAVE BEEN IN A
DEGRADING TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. CPC AND WPC
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT RAPID ONSET DROUGHT ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA THAT DON'T ALREADY HAVE D1 OR D2 DROUGHT CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT 3-14 DAYS. IN ADDITION TO THE OBVIOUS AGRICULTURAL
IMPACTS FROM DROUGHT, ANOTHER COMPONENT TO MONITOR IS THE
POTENTIAL EARLY ONSET OF THE FALL FIRE SEASON AS A RESULT OF
EARLY DRYING OF FUELS, ESPECIALLY FINE FUELS LIKE GRASSES.
MOISTURE DOES SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS WEEK, BUT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL SEE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA REACH MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RHS BETWEEN 25-35%. BE MINDFUL OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
POTENTIALLY MATERIALIZING EARLIER THAN NORMAL WITH THESE
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MINIMAL CLOUD COVER, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS TURN A BIT MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN JEOPARDY:
AUGUST 30:
KSGF: 101/2000
KJLN: 103/2000
KVIH: 99/2000
AUGUST 31:
KSGF: 102/2000
KJLN: 105/2000
KVIH: 100/2000
SEPTEMBER 1:
KSGF: 102/2000
KJLN: 105/2000
KVIH: 99/1953
KUNO: 101/2000
SEPTEMBER 2:
KSGF: 101/2000
KJLN: 105/2000
KVIH: 99/1899
KUNO: 101/2000
SEPTEMBER 3:
KSGF: 102/2000
KJLN: 102/1954
KVIH: 100/1897
SEPTEMBER 4:
KJLN: 102/1954
SEPTEMBER 5:
KSGF: 99/1998
KJLN: 103/1998
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN JEOPARDY:
AUGUST 30:
KSGF: 73/2013
KJLN: 76/1945
KVIH: 75/1951
AUGUST 31:
KSGF: 76/2011
KJLN: 80/2011
KVIH: 75/1980
SEPTEMBER 1:
KSGF: 77/1922
KJLN: 80/2011
KUNO: 74/1989
KVIH: 76/2011
SEPTEMBER 2:
KSGF: 76/1922
KJLN: 77/1961
KUNO: 73/1980
KVIH: 75/1898
SEPTEMBER 3:
KSGF: 74/2011
KJLN: 77/1944
KUNO: 72/2023
KVIH: 74/1960
SEPTEMBER 4:
KSGF: 75/1913
KJLN: 77/1954
KUNO: 73/2021
KVIH: 74/1990
SEPTEMBER 5:
KSGF: 76/1998
KJLN: 77/1985
KUNO: 72/2012
KVIH: 78/1899
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ073-
097-101.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...CAMDEN
LONG TERM...CAMDEN
AVIATION...PEREZ
CLIMATE...CAMDEN
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