867
FXUS63 KSGF 150526
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1226 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI, AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY AND IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 100-105 CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY NORTH OF I-44.
THERE IS A MARGINAL (1 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54 TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
MAIN RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
LIGHTNING.
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ARE AREA EACH DAY THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A HOT AIR MASS HAS
MOVED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY, EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 TO 105 DEGREES
WILL OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING.
INSTABILITY IS INCREASING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65
THIS AFTERNOON AND A CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD HAS DEVELOPED IN THESE
LOCATIONS. THE CAP IS WEAKENING BUT IS NOT TOTALLY ERODING THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (<10%) FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 65, BUT MOST IF NOT
ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY AS LIFT REMAINS WEAK TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI TO NEAR 80 ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HOT AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 20C WILL BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THE ENSEMBLE MODEL
MEMBERS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A FRONT APPROACHING THE
AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY AS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED.
INSTABILITY AND THE CAP WILL WEAKEN WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY
EACH DAY THIS WEEK AND COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED PULSE TYPE
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH THE
FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED STORM CHANCES TO THE AREA, MAINLY NORTH OF I-44
TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA AND
UNCAPPED MUCAPE IN PLACE ALL NIGHT, STORMS COULD OCCUR OFF AND
ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT NORTH OF THE FRONT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STORM MODE WILL BE
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, SO ITS POSSIBLE THAT IF STORMS
DEVELOP AND CREATE AN OUTFLOW IT COULD PUSHES THE
ACTIVITY/EFFECTED FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN RISK
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54 ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE BETTER
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
CEILINGS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT NEAR 10 KNOTS. WINDS TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING AND GUST UP TO
25 KNOTS. WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 00Z AND
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ066>068-
077>082-088>098-101>106.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MOZ055>058-069>071-083.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SORIA
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