732
FXUS63 KSGF 151117
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
617 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY UNTIL 8
PM. HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105 CAN BE
EXPECTED.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, MAINLY NORTH OF I-44. THERE IS A
MARGINAL (1 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR LOCATIONS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 54 WITH THE MAIN RISKS BEING DAMAGING WINDS,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND LIGHTNING.
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY (15-20%).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND HAS
BROUGHT US CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TONIGHT.
A FRONT HAS STALLED OUT JUST OVER NORTHERN MO AND WILL MOVE A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS CENTRAL MO AND STAY THERE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE TODAY AND BRINGS US A CHANCE (30-50%) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE WITH THE FRONT STATIONED JUST THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER, NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN, AND THESE STORMS MAY BE
CONFINED MOSTLY NORTH OF I-44 WHERE THE MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOCATED. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT AND
INSTABILITY FOR THE STORMS TO USE WITH THE FRONT NEARBY, BUT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS A BIT LACKING WITH VALUES BARELY MAKING IT
TO 30 KNOTS. THE MORE CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORM THAT
FORMS TODAY IS WIND UP TO 60 MPH. WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH GUSTING NEAR 25 MPH. TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL
CLOUDS BEGIN TO CREEP IN LATER THIS EVENING. TONIGHT'S LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM IN THE 70S.
THE HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 8
PM TONIGHT. HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE
POSSIBLE, BE SURE TO TAKE PLENTY OF BREAKS AND DRINK WATER IF
SPENDING TIME OUTSIDE. THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER OR
NOT WE WILL HIT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
THERE IS A 15-20% CHANCE FOR RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
MAY BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA. IF THIS OCCURS AND CLOUD COVER IS
WIDESPREAD, THIS WOULD ELIMINATE THE NEED FOR THE HEAT ADVISORY
TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME. ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM MAY BE PULSE-
LIKE AND OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET.
RAIN CHANCES KEEP DIMINISHING AND ARE GETTING PUSHED FURTHER
OUT IN TIME. THERE WERE A FEW MODELS SHOWING RAIN TOWARDS THE
END OF THIS WEEK, BUT NOW THE WEATHER LOOKS MOSTLY DRY. THOUGH,
THE SIGNAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OCCUR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY (30-50%) HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT AS THAT RIDGE BEGINS
TO HOPEFULLY PUSH EAST. IF THE RIDGE STAYS PUT, IT'LL BE MORE
DIFFICULT TO GET RAIN ANY FURTHER SOUTH THAN CENTRAL MO.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S TO END THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
LOWERING INTO THE 80S FOR NEXT WEEKEND. NOW, THERE IS SOME HOPE
ON THE HORIZON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES THREATENING TO DROP INTO
THE 70S FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE SPREAD IN
TEMPERATURES FOR THAT FAR OUT IS PRETTY LARGE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE AREA
COULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S WITH A RANGE OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES WITH
THE WARMER END BEING IN THE LOWER 80S AND THE COOLER END BEING
IN THE LOWER 70S. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FRONT INCOMING
EARLY NEXT WEEK TO SEE IF COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY ON
THEIR WAY OR IF THE MODELS ARE GIVING US FALSE HOPE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
CEILINGS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATER THIS MORNING AND GUST
UP TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 00Z AND
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ066>068-
077>082-088>098-101>106.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MOZ055>058-069>071-083.
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...SORIA
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