314
FXUS63 KSGF 181638
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1138 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS NEAR 100
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105 CAN BE EXPECTED. DAILY RECORDS
MAY CONTINUE TO BE TIED OR BROKEN.
- LESS THAN 20% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL MISSOURI.
- COOLER CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DETAILS ON THE EXACT EXTENT OF THE COOLDOWN AND
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
DESPITE BEING FIRMLY INTO "FALL" BY NOW, THE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. FOR THE OZARKS REGION,
THIS REALLY JUST MEANS CONTINUED HEAT. HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR
100 AGAIN TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO AROUND 105. THE HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING AREA-WIDE.
WE'LL SEE A REPEAT OF PULSE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON
ONCE AGAIN AS A STALLED FRONT FOCUSES MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND
LIFT ACROSS MISSOURI. THE GREATEST COLLOCATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS
WILL BE FARTHER NORTHEAST, AGAIN AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. FOR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI, CAMS INDICATE VERY SMALL, TRANSIENT
PULSE STORMS. HRRR HOURLY GUSTS SHOW VERY LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE OZARKS PULSE THUNDERSTORM
INDEX HAS VERY LITTLE IF ANY OUTPUT IN THE SGF CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS RAIN THEMSELVES OUT AND STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BY
SUNSET. LOWS ARE STILL VERY WARM IN THE 60S FOR MOST, THOUGH SOUTH-
CENTRAL MO COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
MAY PREVENT THOSE AREAS FROM HEATING QUITE AS MUCH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT LOWER SATURDAY, SO HEAT INDEX
VALUES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH PERHAPS FEWER AREAS BREAKING
100 DEGREES. HIGHS THEMSELVES STILL IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100.
WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER, MORE STABLE AIRMASS, AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
STILL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT CREEPS EVER CLOSER. BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY, POPS IN WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI CLIMB TO 30-50%.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE QUITE SLOWLY THROUGHOUT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
ALLOWING HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY TO STILL REACH THE UPPER
90S, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI. AN EXTENSION OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY BE WARRANTED, THOUGH FARTHER
NORTH HIGHS MAY "ONLY" REACH THE MID-90S DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF
THE FRONT.
THE NBM HAS INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, WITH POPS UP TO 60% REACHING THE I-44 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
MORNING AND 50-70% CHANCES IN SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI BY THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN NBM MEMBERS AT
THIS RANGE. THERE IS A NEARLY TEN DEGREE INTERQUARTILE SPREAD IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE UPPER
80S IN SPRINGFIELD, FOR EXAMPLE. THESE LARGE SPREADS CONTINUE FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK, THOUGH THE ENTIRE DISTRIBUTION LIES IN THE 70S
FOR SPRINGFIELD TUESDAY, WHICH IS ENCOURAGING.
RAIN COMES TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT. DETERMINISTIC RAINFALL TOTALS
SHOW A GRADIENT OF ABOUT 0.75" IN WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI DOWN TO LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI. TOTALS ARE ABOUT
0.4 TO 0.2 FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR. THE
PROBABILITY OF >0.50" RANGES FROM ABOUT 50% AT TRUMAN STATE PARK TO
ABOUT 20% IN WEST PLAINS.
HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK TO BE LARGELY BELOW 80 DEGREES,
BUT AGAIN, THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE AT THIS RANGE. A FEW DAYS
AGO, HIGHS MONDAY LOOKED MUCH LOWER AND HAVE ONLY WARMED THE CLOSER
WE GET, SO IT IS BEST TO TEMPER OUR EXPECTATIONS FOR NOW. STILL A
SLIGHT LEAN TOWARD WET AND WARM FOR THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK, BUT NO
INDICATION AWAY FROM NORMAL ONE DAY OR THE OTHER FOR 3-4 WEEKS
OUT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z SATURDAY,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN MISSOURI WHERE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 18:
KSGF: 95/2019
KJLN: 97/2022
KVIH: 95/1953
KUNO: 96/1972
SEPTEMBER 19:
KSGF: 96/1954
KJLN: 99/2024
KUNO: 97/1954
SEPTEMBER 20:
KSGF: 97/1954
KVIH: 95/1954
KUNO: 97/1954
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 18:
KSGF: 74/1931
SEPTEMBER 19:
KSGF: 73/1931
SEPTEMBER 20:
KSGF: 74/2018
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...NELSON
LONG TERM...NELSON
AVIATION...DIDIO
CLIMATE...NELSON
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